Football · Panama LPF · 07/09, 01:15

Prediction: Alianza FC Panama vs San Francisco FC

Team pages: Alianza FC Panama · San Francisco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Alianza FC Panama1.3

San Francisco FC1.45

1X2

32% 28% 39%

Alianza FC Panama Draw San Francisco FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Panama 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWDLWD

San Francisco FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Panama 3–3–0 San Francisco FC (6 last)

Alianza FC Panama3-3San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC1-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama1-1San Francisco FC
Alianza FC Panama1-1San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC1-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama3-1San Francisco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Panama 1500 · San Francisco FC 1552

	Alianza FC Panama	Draw	San Francisco FC
Our model	33%	28%	40%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Francisco FC (rating 1500 vs 1552).
H2H favours Alianza FC Panama: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Panama	San Francisco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.03 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.48

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:29 +26’	2.30	3.10	2.80
09:42 +7’	2.80▲	3.10	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:54	3.07	2.80	2.45
09:48 +1’	3.03▼	2.80	2.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Panama 3–3–0 San Francisco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	3-3 HT 1-1	San Francisco FC
22/11/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Panama
17/11/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-1 HT 0-1	San Francisco FC
16/09/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-1 HT 0-0	San Francisco FC
29/03/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Alianza FC Panama
21/09/24 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	3-1 HT 2-0	San Francisco FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	6	4	1	1	15	9	13
2	Veraguas CD	7	2	4	1	11	11	10
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	6	1	3	2	8	7	6
4	CD Universitario	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
5	Herrera FC	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
5	Union Cocle	6	1	2	3	5	9	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Panama	San Francisco FC
Union Cocle	2-2 D	1-2 L
Plaza Amador	2-4 L	4-1 W
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	3-3 D
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: San Francisco FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Panama

DDDDDWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
25/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-3	2-4	5	6	L
10/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
01/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
17/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/05	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	7	5	D

San Francisco FC

DLWWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
23/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
15/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
02/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-2	1-2	10	3	L
26/07	CD Universitario Panama LPF	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
02/05	CD Universitario Panama LPF	4-2	5-2	4	8	W
26/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
12/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Panama vs San Francisco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Francisco FC win (39%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Panama 32%, draw 28%, San Francisco FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Panama vs San Francisco FC?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Alianza FC Panama 1.3 · San Francisco FC 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Panama vs San Francisco FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.