Football · Colombia Primera B · 25/07, 23:00
Prediction: Bogota FC vs Union Magdalena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
Bogota FC0.93
Union Magdalena1.15
1X2
Bogota FC
Draw
Union Magdalena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bogota FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Union Magdalena
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bogota FC
0–3–3
Union Magdalena
(6 last)
- Union Magdalena0-0Bogota FC
- Bogota FC1-1Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena0-0Bogota FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bogota FC 1498 · Union Magdalena 1553
| Bogota FC | Draw | Union Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 33% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Magdalena (rating 1498 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Union Magdalena: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bogota FC | Union Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.9 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bogota FC 0–3–3 Union Magdalena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bogota FC |
| 28/04/26 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 27/01/26 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bogota FC |
| 26/07/24 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Bogota FC |
| 02/02/24 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 23/11/21 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Bogota FC |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Cali FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barranquilla FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bogota FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Patriotas FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real San Andres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportes Quindio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Envigado FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Yumbo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Itagui Leones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Orsomarso | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tigres FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Magdalena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bogota FC | Union Magdalena |
|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Barranquilla FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Magdalena (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bogota FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/04 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
Union Magdalena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 12/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/04 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/04 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 30/03 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bogota FC vs Union Magdalena?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Magdalena win (40%). Probabilities: Bogota FC 29%, draw 31%, Union Magdalena 40%.
How many goals are expected in Bogota FC vs Union Magdalena?
The model expects 2.08 goals (Bogota FC 0.93 · Union Magdalena 1.15), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bogota FC vs Union Magdalena?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.