Football · Colombia Primera B · 04/08, 00:30
Prediction: Itagui Leones vs Deportes Quindio
Team pages: Itagui Leones · Deportes Quindio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.83Total
Itagui Leones0.81
Deportes Quindio1.02
1X2
Itagui Leones
Draw
Deportes Quindio
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Itagui Leones
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Deportes Quindio
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Itagui Leones
1–2–3
Deportes Quindio
(6 last)
- Deportes Quindio3-0Itagui Leones
- Deportes Quindio2-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones4-1Deportes Quindio
- Deportes Quindio4-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones2-2Deportes Quindio
- Itagui Leones0-0Deportes Quindio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Itagui Leones 1479 · Deportes Quindio 1530
| Itagui Leones | Draw | Deportes Quindio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 35% | 38% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Quindio (rating 1479 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Deportes Quindio: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Itagui Leones | Deportes Quindio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Itagui Leones 1–2–3 Deportes Quindio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Deportes Quindio | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 15/09/25 Colombia Primera B | Deportes Quindio | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 06/04/25 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Deportes Quindio |
| 23/10/24 Colombia Primera B | Deportes Quindio | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 12/05/24 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Deportes Quindio |
| 02/08/23 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Quindio |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriotas FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Independiente Yumbo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Envigado FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Itagui Leones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Tigres FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Real San Andres | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 12 | Barranquilla FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Deportes Quindio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Atletico Cali FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Itagui Leones | Deportes Quindio |
|---|---|---|
| Tigres FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Internacional FC de Palmira | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Itagui Leones
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 08/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/04 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/03 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 13 | L |
Deportes Quindio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/07 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 05/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/04 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Itagui Leones vs Deportes Quindio?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportes Quindio win (40%). Probabilities: Itagui Leones 28%, draw 32%, Deportes Quindio 40%.
How many goals are expected in Itagui Leones vs Deportes Quindio?
The model expects 1.83 goals (Itagui Leones 0.81 · Deportes Quindio 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Itagui Leones vs Deportes Quindio?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.