Football · Colombia Primera B · 30/08, 00:30

Prediction: Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC

Team pages: Real Cartagena · Tigres FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Real Cartagena1.92

Tigres FC0.55

1X2

70% 21% 9%

Real Cartagena Draw Tigres FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Cartagena 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWDLWW

Tigres FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLDWW

Head-to-head

Real Cartagena 3–3–0 Tigres FC (6 last)

Tigres FC0-0Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena4-0Tigres FC
Tigres FC1-1Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena3-0Tigres FC
Tigres FC0-0Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena3-1Tigres FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Cartagena 1532 · Tigres FC 1480

	Real Cartagena	Draw	Tigres FC
Our model	69%	22%	9%
Market	70%	20%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Cartagena (rating 1532 vs 1480).
H2H favours Real Cartagena: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Cartagena	Tigres FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +5’	1.30	4.50	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Cartagena 3–3–0 Tigres FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Tigres FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
23/08/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	4-0 HT 3-0	Tigres FC
11/06/25 Colombia Primera B	Tigres FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Cartagena
30/05/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	3-0 HT 2-0	Tigres FC
18/03/25 Colombia Primera B	Tigres FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
23/10/24 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	3-1 HT 1-0	Tigres FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	5	3	1	1	14	5	10
2	Patriotas FC	4	2	2	0	8	4	8
3	Orsomarso	4	2	2	0	4	1	8
4	Itagui Leones	5	2	2	1	5	8	8
5	Independiente Yumbo	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
6	Tigres FC	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
7	Bogota FC	5	2	1	2	3	4	7
8	Real San Andres	5	1	3	1	8	11	6
9	Deportes Quindio	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	Internacional FC de Palmira	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
12	Envigado FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	Boca Juniors De Cali	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
14	Barranquilla FC	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
15	Atletico Cali FC	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Union Magdalena	3	0	1	2	0	2	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Cartagena	Tigres FC
Itagui Leones	6-1 W	0-1 L
Envigado FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Union Magdalena	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tigres FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Cartagena

LWWLDWDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	4-1	6-1	3	5	W
21/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
26/07	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
29/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
26/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
22/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/05	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
12/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	1	6	L

Tigres FC

WLLLLDLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/08	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
01/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
25/07	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
19/05	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
15/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
10/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
05/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
29/04	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
25/04	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Cartagena win (70%). Probabilities: Real Cartagena 70%, draw 21%, Tigres FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Real Cartagena 1.92 · Tigres FC 0.55), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.