Football · Colombia Primera B · 05/09, 02:30
Prediction: Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena
Team pages: Orsomarso · Real Cartagena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Orsomarso1.18
Real Cartagena1.44
1X2
Orsomarso
Draw
Real Cartagena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Orsomarso
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Real Cartagena
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orsomarso
1–5
Real Cartagena
(6 last)
- Real Cartagena4-0Orsomarso
- Real Cartagena3-1Orsomarso
- Orsomarso1-2Real Cartagena
- Orsomarso0-1Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena2-1Orsomarso
- Orsomarso1-0Real Cartagena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orsomarso 1494 · Real Cartagena 1522
| Orsomarso | Draw | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Real Cartagena: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orsomarso | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orsomarso 1–0–5 Real Cartagena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Orsomarso |
| 22/09/25 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Orsomarso |
| 11/04/25 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Real Cartagena |
| 23/11/24 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Real Cartagena |
| 31/10/24 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Orsomarso |
| 14/10/24 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Cartagena |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Independiente Yumbo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Tigres FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Real San Andres | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Deportes Quindio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Patriotas FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Itagui Leones | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Bogota FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Barranquilla FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 12 | Atletico Cali FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Envigado FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orsomarso | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Barranquilla FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Itagui Leones | 0-0 D | 6-1 W |
| Bogota FC | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Independiente Yumbo | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Real San Andres | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Cartagena (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orsomarso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/08 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 27/07 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/03 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 12 | L |
| 27/03 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Real Cartagena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
4-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 07/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Cartagena win (42%). Probabilities: Orsomarso 30%, draw 29%, Real Cartagena 42%.
How many goals are expected in Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Orsomarso 1.18 · Real Cartagena 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.