Football · Colombia Primera B · 05/09, 00:00

Prediction: Bogota FC vs Independiente Yumbo

Team pages: Bogota FC · Independiente Yumbo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

Bogota FC1.09

Independiente Yumbo0.85

1X2

41% 31% 28%

Bogota FC Draw Independiente Yumbo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Bogota FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Independiente Yumbo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bogota FC 0–1–0 Independiente Yumbo (1 last)

Independiente Yumbo1-1Bogota FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bogota FC 1469 · Independiente Yumbo 1478

	Bogota FC	Draw	Independiente Yumbo
Our model	40%	34%	27%
Market	42%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bogota FC	Independiente Yumbo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.5	2.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +2’	2.20	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bogota FC 0–1–0 Independiente Yumbo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Independiente Yumbo	1-1 HT 1-0	Bogota FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
2	Independiente Yumbo	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
2	Tigres FC	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
4	Real San Andres	6	2	3	1	11	12	9
5	Orsomarso	4	2	2	0	4	1	8
6	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
7	Deportes Quindio	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
8	Patriotas FC	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
9	Itagui Leones	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Bogota FC	6	2	1	3	4	6	7
11	Barranquilla FC	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
12	Atletico Cali FC	5	1	2	2	6	9	5
13	Internacional FC de Palmira	5	1	2	2	4	7	5
14	Envigado FC	5	1	1	3	3	5	4
15	Boca Juniors De Cali	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
16	Union Magdalena	5	1	1	3	1	4	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bogota FC	Independiente Yumbo
Atletico Cali FC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Boca Juniors De Cali	2-1 W	0-0 D
Real Cartagena	0-2 L	2-0 W
Itagui Leones	0-1 L	1-0 W
Union Magdalena	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Yumbo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bogota FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	14	3	L
25/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	10	L
06/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
03/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
25/07	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
13/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
09/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L

Independiente Yumbo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
07/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
03/08	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	12	5	D
28/07	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	2-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/04	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	9	9	D
07/04	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
30/03	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	9	L
27/03	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
21/03	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bogota FC vs Independiente Yumbo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bogota FC win (41%). Probabilities: Bogota FC 41%, draw 31%, Independiente Yumbo 28%.

How many goals are expected in Bogota FC vs Independiente Yumbo?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Bogota FC 1.09 · Independiente Yumbo 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Bogota FC vs Independiente Yumbo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.