Football · Colombia Primera B · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Internacional FC de Palmira vs Real Cartagena

Team pages: Internacional FC de Palmira · Real Cartagena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Internacional FC de Palmira1.32

Real Cartagena1.37

1X2

35% 29% 37%

Internacional FC de Palmira Draw Real Cartagena

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional FC de Palmira 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDWLLL

Real Cartagena 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Internacional FC de Palmira 1–4–1 Real Cartagena (6 last)

Real Cartagena2-2Internacional FC de Palmira
Real Cartagena0-0Internacional FC de Palmira
Real Cartagena3-3Internacional FC de Palmira
Internacional FC de Palmira0-1Real Cartagena
Internacional FC de Palmira2-0Real Cartagena
Internacional FC de Palmira0-0Real Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional FC de Palmira 1441 · Real Cartagena 1514

	Internacional FC de Palmira	Draw	Real Cartagena
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	35%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Cartagena (rating 1441 vs 1514).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional FC de Palmira	Real Cartagena
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:06 +30’	2.50	3.25	2.60
07:46 +3’	2.63▲	3.25	2.63▲
11:04 +70’	2.88▲	3.25	2.40▼
17:31 +2’	2.70▼	3.25	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +72’	2.63	3.13	2.65
09:50 +144’	2.70▲	3.16▲	2.56▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional FC de Palmira 1–4–1 Real Cartagena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	2-2 HT 2-2	Internacional FC de Palmira
15/07/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional FC de Palmira
15/06/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	3-3 HT 2-1	Internacional FC de Palmira
27/05/25 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
31/01/25 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Cartagena
19/07/24 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Yumbo	7	4	2	1	8	2	14
2	Patriotas FC	7	4	2	1	13	9	14
3	Real Cartagena	7	4	1	2	15	8	13
4	Tigres FC	7	4	1	2	8	3	13
5	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
6	Atletico Cali FC	7	3	2	2	10	9	11
7	Deportes Quindio	7	2	4	1	5	3	10
8	Real San Andres	7	2	4	1	11	12	10
9	Orsomarso	6	2	2	2	4	4	8
10	Barranquilla FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Itagui Leones	7	2	2	3	5	12	8
12	Bogota FC	7	2	1	4	4	8	7
13	Envigado FC	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
14	Boca Juniors De Cali	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
16	Union Magdalena	6	1	1	4	2	6	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional FC de Palmira	Real Cartagena
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	0-2 L	1-1 D
Real San Andres	1-3 L	5-1 W
Barranquilla FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Bogota FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Tigres FC	2-2 D	0-3 L
Envigado FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Cartagena (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional FC de Palmira

DWDLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
04/09	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
25/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
03/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	15	5	D
26/07	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-3	2	6	L
19/05	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
15/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
11/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Real Cartagena

WLDWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
30/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
25/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	4-1	6-1	3	5	W
21/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
26/07	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
29/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
26/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
22/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Real Cartagena?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Cartagena win (37%). Probabilities: Internacional FC de Palmira 35%, draw 29%, Real Cartagena 37%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Real Cartagena?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Internacional FC de Palmira 1.32 · Real Cartagena 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Real Cartagena?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.