Football · Colombia Primera B · 22/09, 02:30

Prediction: Real Cartagena vs Envigado FC

Team pages: Real Cartagena · Envigado FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Real Cartagena1.75

Envigado FC0.91

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Real Cartagena Draw Envigado FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Cartagena 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWWLWL

Envigado FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLLLDD

Head-to-head

Real Cartagena 1–2–2 Envigado FC (5 last)

Envigado FC1-1Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena2-3Envigado FC
Envigado FC1-1Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena2-1Envigado FC
Envigado FC2-0Real Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Cartagena 1512 · Envigado FC 1461

	Real Cartagena	Draw	Envigado FC
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Cartagena (rating 1512 vs 1461).
H2H favours Envigado FC: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Cartagena	Envigado FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.76 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +6’	1.61	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +12’	1.76	3.43	4.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Cartagena 1–2–2 Envigado FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Colombia Primera B	Envigado FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Cartagena
26/05/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	2-3 HT 1-1	Envigado FC
16/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Envigado FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
30/08/24 Colombia Cup	Real Cartagena	2-1 HT 1-1	Envigado FC
08/05/24 Colombia Cup	Envigado FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Cartagena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	8	5	2	1	10	2	17
2	Patriotas FC	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
3	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	8	4	2	2	13	8	14
4	Tigres FC	8	4	2	2	8	3	14
5	Atletico Cali FC	8	4	2	2	12	9	14
6	Real Cartagena	8	4	1	3	16	10	13
7	Boca Juniors De Cali	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
8	Deportes Quindio	8	2	4	2	6	5	10
9	Real San Andres	8	2	4	2	11	14	10
10	Itagui Leones	9	2	3	4	7	15	9
11	Orsomarso	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Barranquilla FC	8	2	2	4	9	13	8
13	Bogota FC	8	2	2	4	4	8	8
14	Internacional FC de Palmira	8	2	2	4	6	11	8
15	Union Magdalena	8	2	1	5	5	9	7
16	Envigado FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Cartagena	Envigado FC
Tigres FC	0-3 L	1-2 L
Itagui Leones	6-1 W	1-1 D
Independiente Yumbo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Envigado FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Cartagena

LDWDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
30/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
25/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	4-1	6-1	3	5	W
21/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
26/07	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
29/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
26/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L

Envigado FC

WWDWDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	11	4	D
01/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
24/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
03/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
27/07	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
29/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
26/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
18/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Cartagena vs Envigado FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Cartagena win (56%). Probabilities: Real Cartagena 56%, draw 26%, Envigado FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Real Cartagena vs Envigado FC?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Real Cartagena 1.75 · Envigado FC 0.91), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Cartagena vs Envigado FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.