Football · Colombia Primera B · 21/09, 22:30

Prediction: Bogota FC vs Barranquilla FC

Team pages: Bogota FC · Barranquilla FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Bogota FC1.27

Barranquilla FC0.81

1X2

47% 29% 23%

Bogota FC Draw Barranquilla FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Bogota FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLWLLD

Barranquilla FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Bogota FC 1–2–3 Barranquilla FC (6 last)

Bogota FC1-1Barranquilla FC
Barranquilla FC2-0Bogota FC
Barranquilla FC1-1Bogota FC
Bogota FC1-0Barranquilla FC
Barranquilla FC2-0Bogota FC
Barranquilla FC4-2Bogota FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bogota FC 1459 · Barranquilla FC 1469

	Bogota FC	Draw	Barranquilla FC
Our model	46%	32%	22%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Barranquilla FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bogota FC	Barranquilla FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.7	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.43
2	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +4’	1.90	3.30	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +16’	1.86	3.43	4.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bogota FC 1–2–3 Barranquilla FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Barranquilla FC
09/05/26 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Bogota FC
16/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Bogota FC
21/09/25 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Barranquilla FC
13/04/25 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Bogota FC
17/10/24 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	4-2 HT 2-2	Bogota FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	8	5	2	1	10	2	17
2	Patriotas FC	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
3	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	8	4	2	2	13	8	14
4	Tigres FC	8	4	2	2	8	3	14
5	Atletico Cali FC	8	4	2	2	12	9	14
6	Real Cartagena	8	4	1	3	16	10	13
7	Boca Juniors De Cali	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
8	Deportes Quindio	8	2	4	2	6	5	10
9	Real San Andres	8	2	4	2	11	14	10
10	Itagui Leones	9	2	3	4	7	15	9
11	Orsomarso	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Barranquilla FC	8	2	2	4	9	13	8
13	Bogota FC	8	2	2	4	4	8	8
14	Internacional FC de Palmira	8	2	2	4	6	11	8
15	Union Magdalena	8	2	1	5	5	9	7
16	Envigado FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bogota FC	Barranquilla FC
Atletico Cali FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Boca Juniors De Cali	2-1 W	2-1 W
Real Cartagena	0-2 L	1-2 L
Internacional FC de Palmira	0-0 D	0-1 L
Union Magdalena	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Barranquilla FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bogota FC

LDWDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
05/09	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	12	0	L
29/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	14	3	L
25/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	10	L
06/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
03/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
25/07	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	2	6	L

Barranquilla FC

DLLDDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
11/09	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
25/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
20/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	13	5	D
27/07	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
22/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
18/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bogota FC vs Barranquilla FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bogota FC win (47%). Probabilities: Bogota FC 47%, draw 29%, Barranquilla FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Bogota FC vs Barranquilla FC?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Bogota FC 1.27 · Barranquilla FC 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bogota FC vs Barranquilla FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.