Football · Colombia Primera B · 27/09, 21:00

Prediction: Envigado FC vs Atletico Cali FC

Team pages: Envigado FC · Atletico Cali FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Envigado FC1.67

Atletico Cali FC0.99

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Envigado FC Draw Atletico Cali FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Envigado FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLDDD

Atletico Cali FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Envigado FC 2–1 Atletico Cali FC (3 last)

Atletico Cali FC1-2Envigado FC
Envigado FC2-0Atletico Cali FC
Atletico Cali FC2-0Envigado FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Envigado FC 1471 · Atletico Cali FC 1480

	Envigado FC	Draw	Atletico Cali FC
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Envigado FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Envigado FC	Atletico Cali FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	1.2 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:18 +8’	1.75	3.40	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Envigado FC 2–0–1 Atletico Cali FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Envigado FC
22/02/23 Colombia Cup	Envigado FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Cali FC
15/02/23 Colombia Cup	Atletico Cali FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Envigado FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tigres FC	9	5	2	2	11	3	17
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	9	5	2	2	16	9	17
3	Independiente Valle del Cauca	9	5	2	2	10	3	17
4	Patriotas FC	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
5	Real Cartagena	9	4	2	3	16	10	14
6	Atletico Cali FC	9	4	2	3	12	12	14
7	Boca Juniors De Cali	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
8	Real San Andres	9	2	5	2	11	14	11
9	Bogota FC	9	3	2	4	6	9	11
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
11	Deportes Quindio	9	2	4	3	7	8	10
12	Orsomarso	8	2	3	3	4	6	9
13	Itagui Leones	9	2	3	4	7	15	9
14	Barranquilla FC	9	2	2	5	10	15	8
15	Envigado FC	8	1	4	3	6	8	7
16	Union Magdalena	8	2	1	5	5	9	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Envigado FC	Atletico Cali FC
Itagui Leones	1-1 D	3-0 W
Union Magdalena	0-1 L	1-3 L
Tigres FC	1-2 L	0-3 L
Independiente Valle del Cauca	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Envigado FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Envigado FC

WDWDLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
12/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	11	4	D
01/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
24/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
03/08	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
27/07	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
29/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
26/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	3-2	2	4	W

Atletico Cali FC

LLDDLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-3	4	4	L
15/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
29/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
25/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
06/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	4	7	D
03/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
28/07	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
18/04	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Envigado FC vs Atletico Cali FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Envigado FC win (52%). Probabilities: Envigado FC 52%, draw 27%, Atletico Cali FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Envigado FC vs Atletico Cali FC?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Envigado FC 1.67 · Atletico Cali FC 0.99), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Envigado FC vs Atletico Cali FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.