Football · Colombia Primera B · 29/08, 22:30

Prediction: Atletico Cali FC vs Bogota FC

Team pages: Atletico Cali FC · Bogota FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Atletico Cali FC1.06

Bogota FC1.19

1X2

32% 30% 38%

Atletico Cali FC Draw Bogota FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Cali FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLDDL

Bogota FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Cali FC 1–2–3 Bogota FC (6 last)

Bogota FC1-0Atletico Cali FC
Bogota FC2-0Atletico Cali FC
Atletico Cali FC2-2Bogota FC
Atletico Cali FC3-0Bogota FC
Bogota FC2-2Atletico Cali FC
Atletico Cali FC0-2Bogota FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Cali FC 1386 · Bogota FC 1479

	Atletico Cali FC	Draw	Bogota FC
Our model	31%	31%	37%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bogota FC (rating 1386 vs 1479).
H2H favours Bogota FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Cali FC	Bogota FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +7’	2.80	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Cali FC 1–2–3 Bogota FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Cali FC
27/07/25 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Cali FC
17/02/25 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	2-2 HT 1-2	Bogota FC
05/08/24 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Bogota FC
16/02/24 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Cali FC
07/08/23 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Bogota FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	5	3	1	1	14	5	10
2	Patriotas FC	4	2	2	0	8	4	8
3	Orsomarso	4	2	2	0	4	1	8
4	Itagui Leones	5	2	2	1	5	8	8
5	Independiente Yumbo	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
6	Tigres FC	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
7	Bogota FC	5	2	1	2	3	4	7
8	Real San Andres	5	1	3	1	8	11	6
9	Deportes Quindio	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	Internacional FC de Palmira	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
12	Envigado FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	Boca Juniors De Cali	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
14	Barranquilla FC	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
15	Atletico Cali FC	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Union Magdalena	3	0	1	2	0	2	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Cali FC	Bogota FC
Barranquilla FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Union Magdalena	1-3 L	1-0 W
Boca Juniors De Cali	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bogota FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Cali FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
06/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	4	7	D
03/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
28/07	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
18/04	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
13/04	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/04	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
01/04	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/03	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
16/03	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	1-2	4	7	L

Bogota FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	10	L
06/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
03/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
25/07	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
13/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
09/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
03/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Cali FC vs Bogota FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bogota FC win (38%). Probabilities: Atletico Cali FC 32%, draw 30%, Bogota FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Cali FC vs Bogota FC?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Atletico Cali FC 1.06 · Bogota FC 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Cali FC vs Bogota FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.