Football · Colombia Primera B · 04/09, 22:30

Prediction: Itagui Leones vs Atletico Cali FC

Team pages: Itagui Leones · Atletico Cali FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Itagui Leones1.33

Atletico Cali FC0.97

1X2

44% 29% 26%

Itagui Leones Draw Atletico Cali FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Itagui Leones 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Cali FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Itagui Leones 2–3–1 Atletico Cali FC (6 last)

Atletico Cali FC0-0Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones1-0Atletico Cali FC
Atletico Cali FC0-0Itagui Leones
Atletico Cali FC2-2Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones2-0Atletico Cali FC
Itagui Leones1-2Atletico Cali FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Itagui Leones 1484 · Atletico Cali FC 1408

	Itagui Leones	Draw	Atletico Cali FC
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Itagui Leones (rating 1484 vs 1408).
H2H favours Itagui Leones: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Itagui Leones	Atletico Cali FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	1.5 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +4’	2.05	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Itagui Leones 2–3–1 Atletico Cali FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Itagui Leones
18/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Cali FC
10/05/25 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Itagui Leones
26/07/24 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	2-2 HT 0-2	Itagui Leones
12/02/24 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	2-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Cali FC
12/08/23 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Cali FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
2	Independiente Yumbo	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
2	Tigres FC	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
4	Real San Andres	6	2	3	1	11	12	9
5	Orsomarso	4	2	2	0	4	1	8
6	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
7	Deportes Quindio	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
8	Patriotas FC	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
9	Itagui Leones	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Bogota FC	6	2	1	3	4	6	7
11	Barranquilla FC	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
12	Atletico Cali FC	5	1	2	2	6	9	5
13	Internacional FC de Palmira	5	1	2	2	4	7	5
14	Envigado FC	5	1	1	3	3	5	4
15	Boca Juniors De Cali	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
16	Union Magdalena	5	1	1	3	1	4	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Itagui Leones	Atletico Cali FC
Independiente Yumbo	0-1 L	0-2 L
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bogota FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Deportes Quindio	1-1 D	1-2 L
Real San Andres	1-0 W	2-2 D
Patriotas FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Barranquilla FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Itagui Leones (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Itagui Leones

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-4	1-6	9	5	L
21/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
06/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
04/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
25/07	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
18/04	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
13/04	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
01/04	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
25/03	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	0	8	L

Atletico Cali FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
25/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
06/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	4	7	D
03/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
28/07	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
18/04	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
13/04	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/04	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
01/04	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/03	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Itagui Leones vs Atletico Cali FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Itagui Leones win (44%). Probabilities: Itagui Leones 44%, draw 29%, Atletico Cali FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Itagui Leones vs Atletico Cali FC?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Itagui Leones 1.33 · Atletico Cali FC 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Itagui Leones vs Atletico Cali FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.