Football · Colombia Primera B · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Real Soacha Cundinamarca vs Union Magdalena

Team pages: Real Soacha Cundinamarca · Union Magdalena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Real Soacha Cundinamarca1.07

Union Magdalena1.06

1X2

34% 32% 34%

Real Soacha Cundinamarca Draw Union Magdalena

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Soacha Cundinamarca 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWDLWW

Union Magdalena 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1–1–3 Union Magdalena (5 last)

Union Magdalena1-1Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Union Magdalena2-0Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Real Soacha Cundinamarca1-0Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena1-0Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Real Soacha Cundinamarca1-2Union Magdalena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1489 · Union Magdalena 1453

	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	Draw	Union Magdalena
Our model	34%	32%	33%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Magdalena: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	Union Magdalena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +12’	2.63	3.00	2.60
07:25 +23’	2.50▼	3.00	2.90▲
10:55 +79’	2.70▲	3.00	2.70▼
17:08 +25’	2.70	3.00	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +138’	2.79	2.90	2.67
07:21 +28’	2.47▼	2.90	3.05▲
09:29 +165’	2.71▲	2.90	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1–1–3 Union Magdalena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Union Magdalena	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
23/11/24 Colombia Primera B	Union Magdalena	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
29/10/24 Colombia Primera B	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Magdalena
11/09/24 Colombia Primera B	Union Magdalena	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
05/04/24 Colombia Primera B	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-2 HT 0-2	Union Magdalena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Yumbo	7	4	2	1	8	2	14
2	Patriotas FC	7	4	2	1	13	9	14
3	Real Cartagena	7	4	1	2	15	8	13
4	Tigres FC	7	4	1	2	8	3	13
5	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
6	Atletico Cali FC	7	3	2	2	10	9	11
7	Deportes Quindio	7	2	4	1	5	3	10
8	Real San Andres	7	2	4	1	11	12	10
9	Orsomarso	6	2	2	2	4	4	8
10	Barranquilla FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Itagui Leones	7	2	2	3	5	12	8
12	Bogota FC	7	2	1	4	4	8	7
13	Envigado FC	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
14	Boca Juniors De Cali	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
16	Union Magdalena	6	1	1	4	2	6	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	Union Magdalena
Orsomarso	0-2 L	0-0 D
Real Cartagena	1-1 D	3-0 W
Envigado FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tigres FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Bogota FC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Magdalena (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Soacha Cundinamarca

DLDLDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
29/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	4-1	7	5	W
25/08	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
21/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
06/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	3-1	6	6	W
02/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
27/07	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
18/04	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
11/04	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
01/04	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-2	2	0	D

Union Magdalena

LWDDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
01/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
29/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
24/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
01/08	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
25/07	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
18/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
12/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
09/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-2	1-2	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Soacha Cundinamarca vs Union Magdalena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Soacha Cundinamarca win (34%). Probabilities: Real Soacha Cundinamarca 34%, draw 32%, Union Magdalena 34%.

How many goals are expected in Real Soacha Cundinamarca vs Union Magdalena?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1.07 · Union Magdalena 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Soacha Cundinamarca vs Union Magdalena?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.