Football · Colombia Primera B · 12/09, 22:30
Prediction: Envigado FC vs Itagui Leones
Team pages: Envigado FC · Itagui Leones
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.09Total
Envigado FC1.42
Itagui Leones0.67
1X2
Envigado FC
Draw
Itagui Leones
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Envigado FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Itagui Leones
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Envigado FC
1–5–0
Itagui Leones
(6 last)
- Itagui Leones0-3Envigado FC
- Envigado FC1-1Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones0-0Envigado FC
- Itagui Leones1-1Envigado FC
- Envigado FC1-1Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones1-1Envigado FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Envigado FC 1485 · Itagui Leones 1470
| Envigado FC | Draw | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Envigado FC | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.3 | 2.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Envigado FC 1–5–0 Itagui Leones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Envigado FC |
| 24/04/19 Colombia Cup | Envigado FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Itagui Leones |
| 13/03/19 Colombia Cup | Itagui Leones | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
| 25/08/18 Colombia Primera A | Itagui Leones | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
| 03/03/18 Colombia Primera A | Envigado FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 03/05/17 Colombia Cup | Itagui Leones | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Envigado FC |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Yumbo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 14 |
| 2 | Patriotas FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Tigres FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Atletico Cali FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportes Quindio | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Real San Andres | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 9 | Orsomarso | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Barranquilla FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 11 | Itagui Leones | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bogota FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Envigado FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| 15 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Envigado FC | Itagui Leones |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Quindio | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Tigres FC | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Independiente Yumbo | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Real Cartagena | 1-1 D | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Envigado FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Envigado FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 01/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 27/07 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 15/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Itagui Leones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 28/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-4 | 1-6 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 06/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/04 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Envigado FC vs Itagui Leones?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Envigado FC win (55%). Probabilities: Envigado FC 55%, draw 28%, Itagui Leones 18%.
How many goals are expected in Envigado FC vs Itagui Leones?
The model expects 2.09 goals (Envigado FC 1.42 · Itagui Leones 0.67), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Envigado FC vs Itagui Leones?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.