Football · Copa do Brazil Women · 22/07, 02:45
Prediction: Vasco da Gama (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
Vasco da Gama (W)0.99
Sao Paulo (W)2.14
1X2
Vasco da Gama (W)
Draw
Sao Paulo (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Vasco da Gama (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Sao Paulo (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vasco da Gama (W)
0–1
Sao Paulo (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama (W) 1604 · Sao Paulo (W) 1552
| Vasco da Gama (W) | Draw | Sao Paulo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (W) (rating 1604 vs 1552).
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vasco da Gama (W) | Sao Paulo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.2 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 78/11/11% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.6 | 2.6 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama (W) 0–0–1 Sao Paulo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/25 Copa do Brazil Women | Vasco da Gama (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Sao Paulo (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vasco da Gama (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | America MG (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | 3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | Araguari (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
4-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
4-0 | 8-0 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Sao Paulo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/07 | Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/07 | Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama (W) 16%, draw 21%, Sao Paulo (W) 63%.
How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
The model expects 3.13 goals (Vasco da Gama (W) 0.99 · Sao Paulo (W) 2.14), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.