Football · Copa do Brazil Women · 22/07, 01:00
Prediction: Itabirito (W) vs Bahia (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Itabirito (W)0.73
Bahia (W)2.22
1X2
Itabirito (W)
Draw
Bahia (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Itabirito (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Bahia (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Itabirito (W) 1602 · Bahia (W) 1560
| Itabirito (W) | Draw | Bahia (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 20% | 71% |
| Market | 12% | 15% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Itabirito (W) (rating 1602 vs 1560).
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Itabirito (W) | Bahia (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.4 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Itabirito (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/05 | Sport Recife (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Ceara (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | Realidade Jovem (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | 3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Bahia (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/04 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/04 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 28/03 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Itabirito (W) vs Bahia (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bahia (W) win (72%). Probabilities: Itabirito (W) 11%, draw 17%, Bahia (W) 72%.
How many goals are expected in Itabirito (W) vs Bahia (W)?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Itabirito (W) 0.73 · Bahia (W) 2.22), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Itabirito (W) vs Bahia (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.