Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 12/09, 14:30

Prediction: Harkemase Boys vs Staphorst

Team pages: Harkemase Boys · Staphorst

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Harkemase Boys1.85

Staphorst1.36

1X2

49% 24% 28%

Harkemase Boys Draw Staphorst

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Harkemase Boys 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWWWWW

Staphorst 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWDLDL

Head-to-head

Harkemase Boys 4–1–0 Staphorst (5 last)

Staphorst0-1Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys2-0Staphorst
Harkemase Boys3-0Staphorst
Harkemase Boys0-0Staphorst
Staphorst1-4Harkemase Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harkemase Boys 1553 · Staphorst 1425

	Harkemase Boys	Draw	Staphorst
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harkemase Boys (rating 1553 vs 1425).
H2H favours Harkemase Boys: 4-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harkemase Boys	Staphorst
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 8	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.4	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	3.70 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +5’	1.67	4.10	3.70
09:51 +16’	1.83▲	3.90▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +224’	1.83	3.62	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harkemase Boys 4–1–0 Staphorst

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Staphorst	0-1 HT 0-1	Harkemase Boys
23/08/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Harkemase Boys	2-0 HT 1-0	Staphorst
09/12/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Harkemase Boys	3-0 HT 0-0	Staphorst
06/09/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Harkemase Boys	0-0 HT 0-0	Staphorst
04/08/20 Europe Friendlies	Staphorst	1-4 HT 1-1	Harkemase Boys

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Genemuiden	4	4	0	0	11	3	12
2	Harkemase Boys	4	4	0	0	10	5	12
3	ACV Assen	4	3	1	0	7	1	10
4	Excelsior '31	4	3	0	1	13	5	9
5	VV Scherpenzeel	4	3	0	1	9	7	9
6	Purmersteijn	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
7	ADO '20	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
8	TEC	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Sportlust '46	4	1	3	0	8	7	6
10	Sparta Nijkerk	4	1	2	1	12	12	5
11	DOVO	4	1	2	1	7	7	5
12	Hoogeveen	4	1	1	2	8	10	4
13	VV Eemdijk	4	1	0	3	6	10	3
14	Staphorst	4	0	2	2	5	8	2
15	HVV Hollandia	4	0	1	3	10	14	1
16	DVS'33 Ermelo	4	0	1	3	3	7	1
17	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	4	0	1	3	8	15	1
18	USV Hercules	4	0	0	4	4	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harkemase Boys	Staphorst
ROHDA Raalte	2-1 W	2-1 W
Excelsior '31	1-0 W	2-4 L
HSC '21	0-0 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harkemase Boys

DWLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	5-3	6	3	W
22/08	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	5	2	W
16/05	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	2	0	L
09/05	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
02/05	Urk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	2-3	10	4	L
25/04	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	HSC '21 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	17	0	D

Staphorst

LLLWLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	2-4	3	1	L
15/08	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
23/05	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
09/05	HSC '21 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
25/04	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
18/04	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
11/04	SV Huizen Netherlands Derde Divisie	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harkemase Boys vs Staphorst?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harkemase Boys win (49%). Probabilities: Harkemase Boys 49%, draw 24%, Staphorst 28%.

How many goals are expected in Harkemase Boys vs Staphorst?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Harkemase Boys 1.85 · Staphorst 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Harkemase Boys vs Staphorst?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.