Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 12/09, 14:30

Prediction: FC Lisse vs TOGB

Team pages: FC Lisse · TOGB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

FC Lisse2.45

TOGB1.37

1X2

60% 20% 20%

FC Lisse Draw TOGB

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lisse 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWWWW

TOGB 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDLLD

Head-to-head

FC Lisse 2–0 TOGB (2 last)

TOGB1-2FC Lisse
FC Lisse6-2TOGB

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lisse (rating 1576 vs 1470).
H2H favours FC Lisse: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lisse	TOGB
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.5	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.79

Under 3.51.96

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.37 → 1.37	Pinn 1.37
X	4.85 → 4.85	Pinn 4.85
2	5.70 → 5.70	Pinn 5.70

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18	1.37	4.85	5.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lisse 2–0–0 TOGB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	TOGB	1-2 HT 0-2	FC Lisse
20/09/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	FC Lisse	6-2 HT 0-2	TOGB

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lisse	5	5	0	0	11	4	15
2	Noordwijk	5	4	1	0	9	0	13
3	VV Dongen	4	3	0	1	12	9	9
4	SV Poortugaal	5	3	0	2	8	5	9
5	Rijnvogels	4	2	2	0	11	5	8
6	Excelsior Maassluis	5	2	2	1	7	5	8
7	RKSV UDI '19	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
8	VV UNA	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
9	Roosendaal	4	2	0	2	6	3	6
10	VV Gemert	5	1	3	1	9	9	6
11	VV Goes	4	1	2	1	8	10	5
12	Zwaluwen	4	1	1	2	3	8	4
13	VVSB	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
14	Achilles Veen	5	1	0	4	6	16	3
15	Blauw Geel '38	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
16	Groene Ster	4	0	2	2	8	12	2
17	TOGB	5	0	2	3	8	12	2
18	EVV Echt	4	0	0	4	5	11	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lisse	TOGB
Roosendaal	1-0 W	1-1 D
Scheveningen	3-1 W	2-3 L
VV UNA	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lisse (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lisse

WDLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
23/05	Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-2	–	–	W
10/05	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
25/04	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
19/04	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	6	0	W

TOGB

WDLWWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-3	–	–	D
30/08	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	5-1	4	0	W
09/05	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/04	Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/04	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
12/04	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lisse vs TOGB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lisse win (60%). Probabilities: FC Lisse 60%, draw 20%, TOGB 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lisse vs TOGB?

The model expects 3.82 goals (FC Lisse 2.45 · TOGB 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lisse vs TOGB?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.