Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 07/11, 20:00

Prediction: RWD Molenbeek vs RFC Meux

Team pages: RWD Molenbeek · RFC Meux

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

RWD Molenbeek1.58

RFC Meux1.16

1X2

46% 26% 27%

RWD Molenbeek Draw RFC Meux

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

RWD Molenbeek 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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RFC Meux 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

RWD Molenbeek 1–0 RFC Meux (1 last)

RFC Meux0-1RWD Molenbeek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RWD Molenbeek 1526 · RFC Meux 1531

	RWD Molenbeek	Draw	RFC Meux
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RWD Molenbeek	RFC Meux
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.03 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +7’	1.91	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:07 +8’	2.02	3.36	3.43
01:17 +4’	2.03▲	3.31▼	3.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RWD Molenbeek 1–0–0 RFC Meux

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	RFC Meux	0-1 HT 0-0	RWD Molenbeek

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	11	7	1	3	19	11	22
2	Union Rochefortoise	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	11	6	3	2	21	13	21
4	Tubize	11	6	2	3	17	12	20
5	RWD Molenbeek	11	6	2	3	16	13	20
6	RAEC Mons	11	5	2	4	25	20	17
7	ROC Charleroi	11	4	3	4	14	22	15
8	Standard Liege II	11	4	2	5	14	9	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	11	3	4	4	12	13	13
10	RSC Habay	10	2	3	5	8	13	9
11	RCS Onhaye	10	2	1	7	11	22	7
12	FC Flenu	11	0	2	9	11	32	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RWD Molenbeek	RFC Meux
Standard Liege II	1-1 D	1-0 W
ROC Charleroi	1-3 L	1-1 D
Tubize	2-1 W	1-0 W
Union Saint Gilloise II	2-4 L	2-1 W
Union Rochefortoise	1-1 D	0-3 L
Sporting Charleroi U23	1-0 W	3-2 W
RCS Onhaye	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Flenu	3-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: RFC Meux (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RWD Molenbeek

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
24/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
17/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
10/10	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	2-4	1	5	L
30/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
12/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
06/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
29/08	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	1	1	W

RFC Meux

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	3-2	0	7	W
25/10	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
17/10	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
10/10	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	8	6	L
03/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
26/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
19/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	7	0	L
13/09	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	4-1	2	5	W
06/09	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RWD Molenbeek vs RFC Meux?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RWD Molenbeek win (46%). Probabilities: RWD Molenbeek 46%, draw 26%, RFC Meux 27%.

How many goals are expected in RWD Molenbeek vs RFC Meux?

The model expects 2.74 goals (RWD Molenbeek 1.58 · RFC Meux 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in RWD Molenbeek vs RFC Meux?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.