Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 06/11, 10:30

Prediction: Ingulets Petrovo vs FK Kulykiv-Bilka

Team pages: Ingulets Petrovo · FK Kulykiv-Bilka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Ingulets Petrovo1.18

FK Kulykiv-Bilka1.52

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Ingulets Petrovo Draw FK Kulykiv-Bilka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ingulets Petrovo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLLWL

FK Kulykiv-Bilka 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ingulets Petrovo 1470 · FK Kulykiv-Bilka 1513

	Ingulets Petrovo	Draw	FK Kulykiv-Bilka
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kulykiv-Bilka (rating 1470 vs 1513).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ingulets Petrovo	FK Kulykiv-Bilka
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.20 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:48 +15’	3.10	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +10’	3.20	3.24	2.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	14	8	4	2	19	11	28
2	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	14	8	3	3	23	14	27
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	13	8	2	3	22	14	26
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	14	7	3	4	28	17	24
5	PFC Oleksandria	14	6	6	2	19	11	24
6	SC Poltava	14	7	3	4	25	13	24
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	14	5	5	4	19	17	20
8	Nyva Ternopil	14	4	7	3	17	13	19
9	FC Metalist Kharkiv	14	5	3	6	17	16	18
10	Ingulets Petrovo	13	5	2	6	14	18	17
11	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	UCSA	14	3	5	6	18	23	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	14	4	1	9	12	26	13
14	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
15	FC Probiy Horodenka	14	2	4	8	14	34	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	14	1	6	7	18	27	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ingulets Petrovo	FK Kulykiv-Bilka
Lokomotiv Kyiv	1-2 L	0-1 L
Kolos Kovalivka II	2-0 W	5-0 W
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-4 L	1-1 D
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0-1 L	5-1 W
SC Poltava	0-0 D	2-1 W
UCSA	2-1 W	2-0 W
Nyva Ternopil	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kulykiv-Bilka (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ingulets Petrovo

LWDWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
25/10	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
26/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	9	7	W
16/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L

FK Kulykiv-Bilka

WDWLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/10	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
18/10	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/10	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	4-1	4-2	5	4	W
04/10	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
26/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
05/09	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/08	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	5-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ingulets Petrovo vs FK Kulykiv-Bilka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Kulykiv-Bilka win (44%). Probabilities: Ingulets Petrovo 29%, draw 27%, FK Kulykiv-Bilka 44%.

How many goals are expected in Ingulets Petrovo vs FK Kulykiv-Bilka?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Ingulets Petrovo 1.18 · FK Kulykiv-Bilka 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ingulets Petrovo vs FK Kulykiv-Bilka?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.