Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 14/11, 11:00

Prediction: SC Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Team pages: SC Poltava · Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

SC Poltava1.5

Ahrobiznes Volochysk1.33

1X2

40% 28% 32%

SC Poltava Draw Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Poltava 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Ahrobiznes Volochysk 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SC Poltava 4–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk (5 last)

Ahrobiznes Volochysk0-3SC Poltava
SC Poltava2-0Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-2SC Poltava
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3-1SC Poltava
SC Poltava2-1Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Poltava 1518 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1521

	SC Poltava	Draw	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Our model	40%	27%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SC Poltava: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Poltava	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:28 +35’	2.25	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Poltava 4–0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0-3 HT 0-0	SC Poltava
04/05/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	SC Poltava	2-0 HT 1-0	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
05/04/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	1-2 HT 1-1	SC Poltava
18/05/24 Ukraine Persha Liga	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	3-1 HT 3-0	SC Poltava
12/04/24 Ukraine Persha Liga	SC Poltava	2-1 HT 0-1	Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	15	9	4	2	21	11	31
2	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	15	8	4	3	24	15	28
3	PFC Oleksandria	15	7	6	2	20	11	27
4	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	14	8	2	4	22	16	26
5	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	15	7	4	4	29	18	25
6	SC Poltava	15	7	3	5	25	14	24
7	Nyva Ternopil	15	5	7	3	21	15	22
8	FC Metalist Kharkiv	15	6	3	6	21	18	21
9	Lokomotiv Kyiv	15	5	5	5	21	21	20
10	Ingulets Petrovo	14	5	3	6	15	19	18
11	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	15	4	5	6	14	19	17
12	UCSA	15	3	6	6	19	24	15
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	14	4	1	9	12	26	13
14	FC Probiy Horodenka	15	2	5	8	15	35	11
15	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	15	1	6	8	20	31	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Poltava	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
PFC Oleksandria	0-1 L	1-0 W
FC Viktoriya Sumy	1-2 L	0-2 L
Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-1 W	2-3 L
Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	4-0 W	3-0 W
FC Probiy Horodenka	2-3 L	6-0 W
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	1-2 L	1-5 L
FC Metalist Kharkiv	3-0 W	1-0 W
Ingulets Petrovo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SC Poltava (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Poltava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
24/10	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
02/10	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-2	2	6	W
26/09	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
04/09	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
30/10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-0	1	6	W
17/10	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
10/10	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	2-1	3-2	9	3	W
27/09	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
20/09	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/09	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
05/09	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	6-0	1	0	W
30/08	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Poltava win (40%). Probabilities: SC Poltava 40%, draw 28%, Ahrobiznes Volochysk 32%.

How many goals are expected in SC Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk?

The model expects 2.83 goals (SC Poltava 1.5 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.33), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.