Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 16/11, 10:00

Prediction: Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Probiy Horodenka

Team pages: Ingulets Petrovo · FC Probiy Horodenka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Ingulets Petrovo1.67

FC Probiy Horodenka1.21

1X2

47% 26% 26%

Ingulets Petrovo Draw FC Probiy Horodenka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ingulets Petrovo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLWLD

FC Probiy Horodenka 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDLDD

Head-to-head

Ingulets Petrovo 2–2–0 FC Probiy Horodenka (4 last)

FC Probiy Horodenka2-2Ingulets Petrovo
Ingulets Petrovo3-1FC Probiy Horodenka
FC Probiy Horodenka0-1Ingulets Petrovo
FC Probiy Horodenka2-2Ingulets Petrovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ingulets Petrovo 1508 · FC Probiy Horodenka 1449

	Ingulets Petrovo	Draw	FC Probiy Horodenka
Our model	47%	26%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ingulets Petrovo (rating 1508 vs 1449).
H2H favours Ingulets Petrovo: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ingulets Petrovo	FC Probiy Horodenka
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.4 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 1	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.91▲	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.70 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:45 +24’	1.80	3.50	3.70
15:42 +8’	1.91▲	3.40▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ingulets Petrovo 2–2–0 FC Probiy Horodenka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Probiy Horodenka	2-2 HT 0-0	Ingulets Petrovo
03/05/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	Ingulets Petrovo	3-1 HT 0-1	FC Probiy Horodenka
12/10/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Probiy Horodenka	0-1 HT 0-1	Ingulets Petrovo
21/08/24 Ukraine Cup	FC Probiy Horodenka	2-2 HT 1-0	Ingulets Petrovo

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	16	9	4	3	25	15	31
2	FC Viktoriya Sumy	16	9	4	3	21	12	31
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
4	PFC Oleksandria	16	7	7	2	20	11	28
5	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	15	7	4	4	29	18	25
6	SC Poltava	16	7	3	6	26	18	24
7	Nyva Ternopil	16	5	8	3	21	15	23
8	FC Metalist Kharkiv	15	6	3	6	21	18	21
9	Lokomotiv Kyiv	15	5	5	5	21	21	20
10	Ingulets Petrovo	14	5	3	6	15	19	18
11	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	16	4	6	6	15	20	18
12	UCSA	15	3	6	6	19	24	15
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	15	4	2	9	13	27	14
14	FC Probiy Horodenka	15	2	5	8	15	35	11
15	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	15	1	6	8	20	31	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ingulets Petrovo	FC Probiy Horodenka
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	1-1 D	2-1 W
Lokomotiv Kyiv	1-2 L	0-2 L
Kolos Kovalivka II	2-0 W	2-4 L
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-4 L	0-2 L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0-1 L	0-6 L
SC Poltava	0-0 D	3-2 W
UCSA	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ingulets Petrovo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ingulets Petrovo

WDWWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
25/10	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
26/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	9	7	W

FC Probiy Horodenka

LLLLWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
18/10	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
04/10	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/09	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
13/09	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
05/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-6	1	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Probiy Horodenka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ingulets Petrovo win (47%). Probabilities: Ingulets Petrovo 47%, draw 26%, FC Probiy Horodenka 26%.

How many goals are expected in Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Probiy Horodenka?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Ingulets Petrovo 1.67 · FC Probiy Horodenka 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Probiy Horodenka?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.