Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya Zhytomyr II

Team pages: Nyva Ternopil · Polissya Zhytomyr II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Nyva Ternopil1.8

Polissya Zhytomyr II1.05

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Nyva Ternopil Draw Polissya Zhytomyr II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nyva Ternopil 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWDWD

Polissya Zhytomyr II 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDLDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nyva Ternopil 1517 · Polissya Zhytomyr II 1442

	Nyva Ternopil	Draw	Polissya Zhytomyr II
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nyva Ternopil (rating 1517 vs 1442).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nyva Ternopil	Polissya Zhytomyr II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +11’	1.67	3.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	14	8	4	2	19	11	28
2	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	14	8	3	3	23	14	27
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	13	8	2	3	22	14	26
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	14	7	3	4	28	17	24
5	PFC Oleksandria	14	6	6	2	19	11	24
6	SC Poltava	14	7	3	4	25	13	24
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	14	5	5	4	19	17	20
8	Nyva Ternopil	14	4	7	3	17	13	19
9	FC Metalist Kharkiv	14	5	3	6	17	16	18
10	Ingulets Petrovo	13	5	2	6	14	18	17
11	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	UCSA	14	3	5	6	18	23	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	14	4	1	9	12	26	13
14	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
15	FC Probiy Horodenka	14	2	4	8	14	34	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	14	1	6	7	18	27	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nyva Ternopil	Polissya Zhytomyr II
FC Probiy Horodenka	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	3-1 W	2-4 L
Lokomotiv Kyiv	0-0 D	3-3 D
Kolos Kovalivka II	3-1 W	0-3 L
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	0-0 D	1-2 L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0-0 D	3-2 W
FC Viktoriya Sumy	3-1 W	1-1 D
Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nyva Ternopil (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nyva Ternopil

DLLWDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
25/10	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
18/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/10	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	3-1	9	2	W
05/10	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
21/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	3-1	2	1	W
13/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
05/09	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Polissya Zhytomyr II

LDWLLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/10	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/10	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-4	2-4	8	4	L
03/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	3-3	4	2	D
28/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-3	9	6	L
20/09	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya Zhytomyr II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nyva Ternopil win (54%). Probabilities: Nyva Ternopil 54%, draw 25%, Polissya Zhytomyr II 21%.

How many goals are expected in Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya Zhytomyr II?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Nyva Ternopil 1.8 · Polissya Zhytomyr II 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya Zhytomyr II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.