Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 16/11, 11:00

Prediction: UCSA vs Polissya Zhytomyr II

Team pages: UCSA · Polissya Zhytomyr II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

UCSA1.81

Polissya Zhytomyr II1.38

1X2

46% 26% 28%

UCSA Draw Polissya Zhytomyr II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

UCSA 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLDWLD

Polissya Zhytomyr II 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLDLDL

Head-to-head

UCSA 0–1–0 Polissya Zhytomyr II (1 last)

Polissya Zhytomyr II2-2UCSA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCSA 1457 · Polissya Zhytomyr II 1442

	UCSA	Draw	Polissya Zhytomyr II
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCSA	Polissya Zhytomyr II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:04 +6’	1.95	3.40	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCSA 0–1–0 Polissya Zhytomyr II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-2 HT 2-1	UCSA

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	16	9	4	3	25	15	31
2	FC Viktoriya Sumy	16	9	4	3	21	12	31
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
4	PFC Oleksandria	16	7	7	2	20	11	28
5	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	15	7	4	4	29	18	25
6	SC Poltava	16	7	3	6	26	18	24
7	Nyva Ternopil	16	5	8	3	21	15	23
8	FC Metalist Kharkiv	15	6	3	6	21	18	21
9	Lokomotiv Kyiv	15	5	5	5	21	21	20
10	Ingulets Petrovo	14	5	3	6	15	19	18
11	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	16	4	6	6	15	20	18
12	UCSA	15	3	6	6	19	24	15
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	15	4	2	9	13	27	14
14	FC Probiy Horodenka	15	2	5	8	15	35	11
15	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	15	1	6	8	20	31	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCSA	Polissya Zhytomyr II
FC Probiy Horodenka	1-1 D	1-1 D
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	0-2 L	2-4 L
Lokomotiv Kyiv	3-2 W	3-3 D
Kolos Kovalivka II	0-0 D	0-3 L
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-2 L	1-2 L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	2-3 L	3-2 W
FC Viktoriya Sumy	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UCSA (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCSA

LWLDLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
25/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
17/10	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
04/10	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
26/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
20/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/09	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-2	0	6	W
05/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L

Polissya Zhytomyr II

DWLLDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	2-1	2-4	7	10	L
02/11	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/10	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/10	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-4	2-4	8	4	L
03/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	3-3	4	2	D
28/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-3	9	6	L
20/09	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCSA vs Polissya Zhytomyr II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UCSA win (46%). Probabilities: UCSA 46%, draw 26%, Polissya Zhytomyr II 28%.

How many goals are expected in UCSA vs Polissya Zhytomyr II?

The model expects 3.19 goals (UCSA 1.81 · Polissya Zhytomyr II 1.38), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UCSA vs Polissya Zhytomyr II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.