Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 29/08, 18:30

Prediction: Arenas Club de Getxo vs Racing Ferrol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Arenas Club de Getxo1.23

Racing Ferrol1.12

1X2

38% 30% 33%

Arenas Club de Getxo Draw Racing Ferrol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Arenas Club de Getxo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Racing Ferrol 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Arenas Club de Getxo 0–1–1 Racing Ferrol (2 last)

Arenas Club de Getxo1-1Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol3-1Arenas Club de Getxo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arenas Club de Getxo 1506 · Racing Ferrol 1481

	Arenas Club de Getxo	Draw	Racing Ferrol
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arenas Club de Getxo	Racing Ferrol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:01 +8’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arenas Club de Getxo 0–1–1 Racing Ferrol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Arenas Club de Getxo	1-1 HT 0-0	Racing Ferrol
18/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Racing Ferrol	3-1 HT 3-0	Arenas Club de Getxo

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arenas Club de Getxo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Athletic Bilbao B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barakaldo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Coria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Extremadura	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lugo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mirandes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cacereno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cultural Leonesa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Merida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontevedra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Ferrol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Fabril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Aviles CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Unión	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ponferradina	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Logrones	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Ourense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zamora CF	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arenas Club de Getxo	Racing Ferrol
Real Madrid B	3-3 D	0-5 L
Merida	2-0 W	1-2 L
Pontevedra	1-0 W	0-0 D
Real Aviles CF	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arenas Club de Getxo (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arenas Club de Getxo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
17/05	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	3-3	5	7	D
08/05	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/05	CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
24/04	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	10	3	W
18/04	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
12/04	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-5	9	6	L
08/04	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
05/04	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
28/03	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-2	4	7	W

Racing Ferrol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
17/05	Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
08/05	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
02/05	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
26/04	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-2	13	4	D
19/04	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
11/04	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-4	0-5	4	6	L
03/04	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
28/03	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
22/03	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arenas Club de Getxo vs Racing Ferrol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arenas Club de Getxo win (38%). Probabilities: Arenas Club de Getxo 38%, draw 30%, Racing Ferrol 33%.

How many goals are expected in Arenas Club de Getxo vs Racing Ferrol?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Arenas Club de Getxo 1.23 · Racing Ferrol 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arenas Club de Getxo vs Racing Ferrol?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.