Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 06/09, 18:15
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao B vs Real Aviles CF
Team pages: Athletic Bilbao B · Real Aviles CF
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Athletic Bilbao B1.48
Real Aviles CF1.11
1X2
Athletic Bilbao B
Draw
Real Aviles CF
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Athletic Bilbao B
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Real Aviles CF
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Athletic Bilbao B
2–2
Real Aviles CF
(4 last)
- Athletic Bilbao B0-2Real Aviles CF
- Real Aviles CF3-2Athletic Bilbao B
- Real Aviles CF1-2Athletic Bilbao B
- Real Aviles CF0-3Athletic Bilbao B
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao B 1494 · Real Aviles CF 1498
| Athletic Bilbao B | Draw | Real Aviles CF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Athletic Bilbao B | Real Aviles CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 2.1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 6.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao B 2–0–2 Real Aviles CF
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Athletic Bilbao B | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Real Aviles CF |
| 28/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Real Aviles CF | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Athletic Bilbao B |
| 26/08/23 Europe Friendlies | Real Aviles CF | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Athletic Bilbao B |
| 31/07/15 Club Friendly List | Real Aviles CF | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Athletic Bilbao B |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Lugo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | UD Logrones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Cacereno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Merida | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Pontevedra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Ponferradina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Racing Ferrol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Zamora CF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Barakaldo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Cultural Leonesa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | CD Extremadura | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Mirandes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Deportivo Fabril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Real Aviles CF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | UD Ourense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | CD Coria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Athletic Bilbao B | Real Aviles CF |
|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| CD Guadalajara | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Pontevedra | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Ourense | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Racing Ferrol | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Aviles CF (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Athletic Bilbao B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 19/04 | Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 10/04 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Real Aviles CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 02/05 | CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 26/04 | Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 05/04 | Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 28/03 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao B vs Real Aviles CF?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao B win (44%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao B 44%, draw 29%, Real Aviles CF 27%.
How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao B vs Real Aviles CF?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Athletic Bilbao B 1.48 · Real Aviles CF 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao B vs Real Aviles CF?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.