Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 28/08, 19:00

Prediction: Real Aviles CF vs Pontevedra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Real Aviles CF1.32

Pontevedra1.35

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Real Aviles CF Draw Pontevedra

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Aviles CF 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDDLLD

Pontevedra 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDDWLD

Head-to-head

Real Aviles CF 1–3–2 Pontevedra (6 last)

Pontevedra2-2Real Aviles CF
Real Aviles CF0-3Pontevedra
Real Aviles CF1-0Pontevedra
Pontevedra1-1Real Aviles CF
Pontevedra2-0Real Aviles CF
Real Aviles CF1-1Pontevedra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Aviles CF 1489 · Pontevedra 1513

	Real Aviles CF	Draw	Pontevedra
Our model	35%	28%	36%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pontevedra: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Aviles CF	Pontevedra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.68
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.61 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:58 +16’	2.60	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:29 +11’	2.68	3.00	2.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Aviles CF 1–3–2 Pontevedra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Pontevedra	2-2 HT 0-1	Real Aviles CF
10/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	0-3 HT 0-1	Pontevedra
16/03/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	1-0 HT 1-0	Pontevedra
03/11/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Pontevedra	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Aviles CF
10/03/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Pontevedra	2-0 HT 0-0	Real Aviles CF
29/10/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	1-1 HT 1-0	Pontevedra

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arenas Club de Getxo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Athletic Bilbao B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barakaldo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Coria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Extremadura	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lugo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mirandes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cacereno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cultural Leonesa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Merida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontevedra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Ferrol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Fabril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Aviles CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Unión	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ponferradina	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Logrones	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Ourense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zamora CF	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Aviles CF	Pontevedra
Barakaldo	1-4 L	2-0 W
Ponferradina	1-3 L	3-1 W
CD Guadalajara	2-2 D	4-1 W
Racing Ferrol	2-2 D	0-0 D
Arenas Club de Getxo	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pontevedra (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Aviles CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-2	1	9	D
17/05	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
09/05	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-3	3	10	L
02/05	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
26/04	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
18/04	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
11/04	Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
05/04	Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	6	9	W
28/03	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-3	2	7	L
22/03	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Pontevedra

LWLWWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-2	6	9	D
17/05	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
09/05	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	4-0	7	2	W
02/05	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/04	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/04	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
12/04	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
08/04	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
04/04	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
28/03	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Aviles CF vs Pontevedra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pontevedra win (36%). Probabilities: Real Aviles CF 35%, draw 29%, Pontevedra 36%.

How many goals are expected in Real Aviles CF vs Pontevedra?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Real Aviles CF 1.32 · Pontevedra 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Aviles CF vs Pontevedra?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.