Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 30/08, 19:15

Prediction: Unionistas de Salamanca CF vs Lugo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Unionistas de Salamanca CF1.21

Lugo0.85

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Unionistas de Salamanca CF Draw Lugo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Unionistas de Salamanca CF 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDLWDW

Lugo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLWLWD

Head-to-head

Unionistas de Salamanca CF 1–4–1 Lugo (6 last)

Lugo1-3Unionistas de Salamanca CF
Unionistas de Salamanca CF0-0Lugo
Lugo2-1Unionistas de Salamanca CF
Unionistas de Salamanca CF1-1Lugo
Lugo1-1Unionistas de Salamanca CF
Unionistas de Salamanca CF1-1Lugo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unionistas de Salamanca CF 1548 · Lugo 1519

	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	Draw	Lugo
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	Lugo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.07
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.58 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +5’	2.15	3.10	3.10
01:11 +11’	2.00▼	3.10	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26	2.07	3.04	3.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unionistas de Salamanca CF 1–4–1 Lugo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Lugo	1-3 HT 0-2	Unionistas de Salamanca CF
26/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	0-0 HT 0-0	Lugo
15/03/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Lugo	2-1 HT 1-0	Unionistas de Salamanca CF
13/10/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	1-1 HT 1-1	Lugo
10/03/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Lugo	1-1 HT 0-1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF
05/11/23 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	1-1 HT 1-1	Lugo

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arenas Club de Getxo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Athletic Bilbao B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barakaldo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Coria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Extremadura	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lugo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mirandes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cacereno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cultural Leonesa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Merida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontevedra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Ferrol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Fabril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Aviles CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Unión	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ponferradina	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Logrones	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Ourense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zamora CF	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	Lugo
Merida	1-1 D	2-0 W
Zamora CF	3-2 W	1-3 L
CD Arenteiro	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Unionistas de Salamanca CF (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unionistas de Salamanca CF

LWWWDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-2	2	5	W
17/05	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
09/05	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
02/05	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
26/04	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
18/04	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
12/04	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
05/04	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	3-2	6	6	W
28/03	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
21/03	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-3	5	11	L

Lugo

DWLLDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
17/05	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	7	L
03/05	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
25/04	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	5	8	L
19/04	CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
11/04	Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-3	2-4	6	10	L
05/04	Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
29/03	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/03	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unionistas de Salamanca CF vs Lugo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unionistas de Salamanca CF win (44%). Probabilities: Unionistas de Salamanca CF 44%, draw 30%, Lugo 26%.

How many goals are expected in Unionistas de Salamanca CF vs Lugo?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Unionistas de Salamanca CF 1.21 · Lugo 0.85), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Unionistas de Salamanca CF vs Lugo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.