Football · Wales Championship North · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Rhyl vs Holyhead Hotspur

Team pages: Rhyl · Holyhead Hotspur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Rhyl1.96

Holyhead Hotspur1.62

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Rhyl Draw Holyhead Hotspur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Rhyl 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLLDDL

Holyhead Hotspur 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Rhyl 4–2 Holyhead Hotspur (6 last)

Holyhead Hotspur3-1Rhyl
Rhyl4-3Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur3-2Rhyl
Rhyl5-0Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur0-1Rhyl
Rhyl5-2Holyhead Hotspur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rhyl 1462 · Holyhead Hotspur 1520

	Rhyl	Draw	Holyhead Hotspur
Our model	45%	23%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holyhead Hotspur (rating 1462 vs 1520).
H2H favours Rhyl: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rhyl	Holyhead Hotspur
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.5	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.5	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:06 +2’	2.00	3.80	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhyl 4–0–2 Holyhead Hotspur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/12/25 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	3-1 HT 0-1	Rhyl
25/08/25 Wales Championship North	Rhyl	4-3 HT 3-0	Holyhead Hotspur
08/03/19 Wales Cymru Alliance	Holyhead Hotspur	3-2	Rhyl
26/10/18 Wales Cymru Alliance	Rhyl	5-0 HT 3-0	Holyhead Hotspur
24/03/18 Wales Cymru Alliance	Holyhead Hotspur	0-1	Rhyl
25/11/17 Wales Cymru Alliance	Rhyl	5-2	Holyhead Hotspur

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rhyl	Holyhead Hotspur
Mold Alexandra	1-2 L	0-1 L
Newtown	2-2 D	0-1 L
Buckley Town	3-3 D	2-0 W
Bangor 1876 FC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Denbigh Town	3-1 W	4-2 W
Caersws	4-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Rhyl (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rhyl

WLWDDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/10	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
09/10	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
03/10	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	2-2	3-3	5	2	D
05/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
28/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	2-0	4-2	–	–	W

Holyhead Hotspur

LLDLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
24/10	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
26/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rhyl vs Holyhead Hotspur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rhyl win (45%). Probabilities: Rhyl 45%, draw 24%, Holyhead Hotspur 31%.

How many goals are expected in Rhyl vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Rhyl 1.96 · Holyhead Hotspur 1.62), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rhyl vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.