Football · Wales Championship North · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Denbigh Town vs Mold Alexandra

Team pages: Denbigh Town · Mold Alexandra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Denbigh Town1.75

Mold Alexandra1.88

1X2

36% 24% 41%

Denbigh Town Draw Mold Alexandra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Denbigh Town 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLLWW

Mold Alexandra 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Denbigh Town 2–1–3 Mold Alexandra (6 last)

Mold Alexandra2-1Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town3-1Mold Alexandra
Denbigh Town1-1Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra2-1Denbigh Town
Mold Alexandra2-0Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town3-2Mold Alexandra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Denbigh Town 1469 · Mold Alexandra 1601

	Denbigh Town	Draw	Mold Alexandra
Our model	36%	24%	41%
Market	36%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mold Alexandra (rating 1469 vs 1601).
H2H favours Mold Alexandra: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Denbigh Town	Mold Alexandra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	2.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.80

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:02 +3’	2.50	3.80	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Denbigh Town 2–1–3 Mold Alexandra

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	2-1 HT 2-0	Denbigh Town
22/08/25 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	3-1 HT 2-1	Mold Alexandra
04/10/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Mold Alexandra
10/08/24 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	2-1 HT 0-1	Denbigh Town
16/12/23 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	2-0 HT 0-0	Denbigh Town
03/11/23 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	3-2 HT 1-0	Mold Alexandra

Standings · Wales Championship North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Denbigh Town	Mold Alexandra
CPD Llanuwchllyn	4-3 W	2-2 D
Holyhead Hotspur	2-4 L	1-0 W
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	4-0 W
Bala Town	5-2 W	4-2 W
Newtown	0-1 L	1-2 L
Rhyl	1-3 L	2-1 W
Ruthin Town FC	1-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Denbigh Town

LLDLLWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
10/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	2-1	2-4	3	4	L
26/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-0	5-2	4	2	W
05/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
14/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	5	L

Mold Alexandra

WWWWWDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
03/10	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
26/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
12/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	14	4	D
06/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	5-1	5-1	–	–	W
31/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
21/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Denbigh Town vs Mold Alexandra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mold Alexandra win (41%). Probabilities: Denbigh Town 36%, draw 24%, Mold Alexandra 41%.

How many goals are expected in Denbigh Town vs Mold Alexandra?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Denbigh Town 1.75 · Mold Alexandra 1.88), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Denbigh Town vs Mold Alexandra?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.