Football · Wales Championship North · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Penrhyncoch vs Caersws

Team pages: Penrhyncoch · Caersws

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Penrhyncoch1.25

Caersws2.2

1X2

20% 21% 58%

Penrhyncoch Draw Caersws

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Penrhyncoch 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLLL

Caersws 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDDDD

Head-to-head

Penrhyncoch 3–2–1 Caersws (6 last)

Caersws1-2Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch1-3Caersws
Caersws1-2Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch4-1Caersws
Penrhyncoch1-1Caersws
Penrhyncoch2-2Caersws

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penrhyncoch 1381 · Caersws 1527

	Penrhyncoch	Draw	Caersws
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	21%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caersws (rating 1381 vs 1527).
H2H favours Penrhyncoch: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penrhyncoch	Caersws
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.9	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	1.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.33

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:47 +18’	4.33	4.33	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penrhyncoch 3–2–1 Caersws

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Wales Championship North	Caersws	1-2 HT 1-1	Penrhyncoch
04/02/26 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	1-3 HT 1-1	Caersws
01/03/25 Wales Championship North	Caersws	1-2 HT 1-1	Penrhyncoch
18/02/25 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	4-1 HT 2-1	Caersws
17/09/22 Wales Cup	Penrhyncoch	1-1 HT 0-1	Caersws
07/03/18 Wales Cymru Alliance	Penrhyncoch	2-2	Caersws

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penrhyncoch	Caersws
Holyhead Hotspur	1-3 L	1-1 D
CPD Llanuwchllyn	1-4 L	5-2 W
Ruthin Town FC	0-2 L	3-0 W
Bala Town	0-1 L	3-3 D
Bangor 1876 FC	1-5 L	1-1 D
Buckley Town	0-5 L	2-0 W
Guilsfield	0-4 L	2-2 D
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Caersws (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penrhyncoch

LDLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
10/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
03/10	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
25/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
15/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-4	1-5	–	–	L
05/09	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
28/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	4	3	L

Caersws

LWWWLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	2-2	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
04/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penrhyncoch vs Caersws?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caersws win (58%). Probabilities: Penrhyncoch 20%, draw 21%, Caersws 58%.

How many goals are expected in Penrhyncoch vs Caersws?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Penrhyncoch 1.25 · Caersws 2.2), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Penrhyncoch vs Caersws?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.