Football · Wales Championship North · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Bala Town vs Guilsfield

Team pages: Bala Town · Guilsfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Bala Town2.19

Guilsfield1.52

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Bala Town Draw Guilsfield

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bala Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLDLDD

Guilsfield 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWWLDD

Head-to-head

Bala Town 2–1–1 Guilsfield (4 last)

Guilsfield2-2Bala Town
Guilsfield1-0Bala Town
Bala Town3-0Guilsfield
Guilsfield0-3Bala Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bala Town 1484 · Guilsfield 1509

	Bala Town	Draw	Guilsfield
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bala Town: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bala Town	Guilsfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 3.5	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	6.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +1’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bala Town 2–1–1 Guilsfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/25 Wales League Cup	Guilsfield	2-2 HT 1-1	Bala Town
19/09/23 Wales League Cup	Guilsfield	1-0 HT 0-0	Bala Town
28/08/18 Wales League Cup	Bala Town	3-0 HT 1-0	Guilsfield
25/02/17 Wales Cup	Guilsfield	0-3	Bala Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bala Town	Guilsfield
Brickfield Rangers	1-1 D	0-2 L
CPD Llanuwchllyn	3-3 D	1-0 W
Buckley Town	2-3 L	1-3 L
Caersws	3-3 D	2-2 D
Penrhyncoch	1-0 W	4-0 W
Denbigh Town	2-5 L	0-2 L
Porthmadog	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bala Town

WLWLWLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
09/10	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
03/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
15/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-1	2-5	3	2	L
05/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-0	3-1	–	–	W

Guilsfield

DLWLDWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
26/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
28/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bala Town vs Guilsfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bala Town win (52%). Probabilities: Bala Town 52%, draw 22%, Guilsfield 26%.

How many goals are expected in Bala Town vs Guilsfield?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Bala Town 2.19 · Guilsfield 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bala Town vs Guilsfield?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.