Football · Wales Championship North · 07/11, 15:30

Prediction: Porthmadog vs CPD Llanuwchllyn

Team pages: Porthmadog · CPD Llanuwchllyn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Porthmadog2.25

CPD Llanuwchllyn1.34

1X2

57% 21% 21%

Porthmadog Draw CPD Llanuwchllyn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Porthmadog 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWWWLD

CPD Llanuwchllyn 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Porthmadog 1514 · CPD Llanuwchllyn 1451

	Porthmadog	Draw	CPD Llanuwchllyn
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Porthmadog (rating 1514 vs 1451).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Porthmadog	CPD Llanuwchllyn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	3.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:56 +17’	1.57	4.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Wales Championship North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Porthmadog	CPD Llanuwchllyn
Guilsfield	2-2 D	0-1 L
Gresford Ath	1-0 W	2-0 W
Bangor 1876 FC	1-0 W	0-5 L
Newtown	1-0 W	0-4 L
Bala Town	1-2 L	3-3 D
Holyhead Hotspur	2-2 D	4-0 W
Caersws	1-3 L	2-5 L
Denbigh Town	3-2 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Porthmadog (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Porthmadog

WLDLWWWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
28/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
21/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	3-2	1	1	W

CPD Llanuwchllyn

LLWWDLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-1	3-4	–	–	L
24/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
10/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
03/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
26/09	Caersws Wales Championship North	2-2	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
05/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-3	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Porthmadog vs CPD Llanuwchllyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Porthmadog win (57%). Probabilities: Porthmadog 57%, draw 21%, CPD Llanuwchllyn 21%.

How many goals are expected in Porthmadog vs CPD Llanuwchllyn?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Porthmadog 2.25 · CPD Llanuwchllyn 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Porthmadog vs CPD Llanuwchllyn?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.