Football · Wales Championship North · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Holyhead Hotspur vs Guilsfield

Team pages: Holyhead Hotspur · Guilsfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Holyhead Hotspur1.58

Guilsfield1.54

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Holyhead Hotspur Draw Guilsfield

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Holyhead Hotspur 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLDLL

Guilsfield 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Holyhead Hotspur 1–1–4 Guilsfield (6 last)

Holyhead Hotspur1-0Guilsfield
Guilsfield3-1Holyhead Hotspur
Guilsfield4-0Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur0-4Guilsfield
Holyhead Hotspur1-1Guilsfield
Guilsfield3-0Holyhead Hotspur

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guilsfield (rating 1483 vs 1531).
H2H favours Guilsfield: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holyhead Hotspur	Guilsfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.99

Under 31.75

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:48

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.44 → 2.44	Pinn 2.44
X	3.77 → 3.77	Pinn 3.77
2	2.32 → 2.32	Pinn 2.32

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:42 +66’	2.44	3.77	2.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Holyhead Hotspur 1–1–4 Guilsfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	1-0 HT 1-0	Guilsfield
08/11/25 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	3-1 HT 2-1	Holyhead Hotspur
01/04/23 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	4-0	Holyhead Hotspur
25/02/23 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	0-4	Guilsfield
18/12/21 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	1-1	Guilsfield
31/07/21 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	3-0 HT 0-0	Holyhead Hotspur

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	8	7	0	1	21	4	21
2	Newtown	7	6	1	0	16	1	19
3	Bala Town	8	6	0	2	15	10	18
4	Mold Alexandra	8	5	2	1	19	9	17
5	Bangor 1876 FC	9	5	1	3	23	17	16
6	Porthmadog	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
7	Caersws	7	4	1	2	13	9	13
8	Buckley Town	9	3	2	4	21	16	11
9	Guilsfield	8	2	4	2	13	12	10
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	7	3	1	3	11	17	10
11	Rhyl	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
12	Denbigh Town	8	2	1	5	16	17	7
13	Ruthin Town FC	9	2	1	6	8	19	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	7	1	1	5	7	14	4
15	Gresford Ath	7	0	1	6	2	20	1
16	Penrhyncoch	9	0	1	8	4	29	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holyhead Hotspur	Guilsfield
Newtown	0-1 L	1-1 D
Mold Alexandra	0-1 L	3-2 W
Brickfield Rangers	1-2 L	0-2 L
Ruthin Town FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Buckley Town	5-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Holyhead Hotspur (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holyhead Hotspur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
31/07	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
03/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
31/03	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	3	7	D

Guilsfield

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
28/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
15/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	3-2	5	3	W
01/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	0	4	D
18/04	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	4-0	5	8	W
11/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	3-1	4-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holyhead Hotspur vs Guilsfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Holyhead Hotspur win (38%). Probabilities: Holyhead Hotspur 38%, draw 26%, Guilsfield 36%.

How many goals are expected in Holyhead Hotspur vs Guilsfield?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Holyhead Hotspur 1.58 · Guilsfield 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Holyhead Hotspur vs Guilsfield?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.