Football · Wales Championship North · 28/08, 20:45
Prediction: Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town
Team pages: Penrhyncoch · Denbigh Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Penrhyncoch1.44
Denbigh Town2.12
1X2
Penrhyncoch
Draw
Denbigh Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Penrhyncoch
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Denbigh Town
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penrhyncoch
1–2–3
Denbigh Town
(6 last)
- Denbigh Town1-0Penrhyncoch
- Penrhyncoch1-1Denbigh Town
- Denbigh Town3-0Penrhyncoch
- Penrhyncoch4-2Denbigh Town
- Penrhyncoch1-2Denbigh Town
- Denbigh Town1-1Penrhyncoch
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penrhyncoch 1491 · Denbigh Town 1476
| Penrhyncoch | Draw | Denbigh Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 21% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Denbigh Town: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penrhyncoch | Denbigh Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 3.3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penrhyncoch 1–2–3 Denbigh Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Wales Championship North | Denbigh Town | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Penrhyncoch |
| 25/08/25 Wales Championship North | Penrhyncoch | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Denbigh Town |
| 25/01/25 Wales Championship North | Denbigh Town | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Penrhyncoch |
| 26/08/24 Wales Championship North | Penrhyncoch | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Denbigh Town |
| 26/01/19 Wales Cymru Alliance | Penrhyncoch | 1-2 | Denbigh Town |
| 08/09/18 Wales Cymru Alliance | Denbigh Town | 1-1 | Penrhyncoch |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Porthmadog | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Bangor 1876 FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Newtown | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Rhyl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Ruthin Town FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | CPD Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 | Gresford Ath | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penrhyncoch | Denbigh Town |
|---|---|---|
| Porthmadog | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Rhyl | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Caersws | 2-1 W | 0-6 L |
| Holyhead Hotspur | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Penrhyncoch (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penrhyncoch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Porthmadog Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Holywell Town Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/03 | Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Denbigh Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Porthmadog Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 14/08 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
3-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/03 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 27/03 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | Airbus UK Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 13/03 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Denbigh Town win (53%). Probabilities: Penrhyncoch 25%, draw 22%, Denbigh Town 53%.
How many goals are expected in Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Penrhyncoch 1.44 · Denbigh Town 2.12), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.