Football · Wales Championship North · 28/08, 21:00

Prediction: Ruthin Town FC vs Mold Alexandra

Team pages: Ruthin Town FC · Mold Alexandra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Ruthin Town FC1.5

Mold Alexandra1.56

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Ruthin Town FC Draw Mold Alexandra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ruthin Town FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Mold Alexandra 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ruthin Town FC 2–4 Mold Alexandra (6 last)

Mold Alexandra1-0Ruthin Town FC
Ruthin Town FC0-1Mold Alexandra
Ruthin Town FC3-0Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra2-0Ruthin Town FC
Mold Alexandra0-3Ruthin Town FC
Ruthin Town FC1-2Mold Alexandra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ruthin Town FC 1451 · Mold Alexandra 1552

	Ruthin Town FC	Draw	Mold Alexandra
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mold Alexandra (rating 1451 vs 1552).
H2H favours Mold Alexandra: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ruthin Town FC	Mold Alexandra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +4’	2.45	3.70	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ruthin Town FC 2–0–4 Mold Alexandra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-0 HT 0-0	Ruthin Town FC
31/10/25 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Mold Alexandra
17/01/25 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Mold Alexandra
14/09/24 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	2-0 HT 2-0	Ruthin Town FC
13/04/24 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	0-3 HT 0-3	Ruthin Town FC
28/07/23 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Mold Alexandra

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	4	4	0	0	14	2	12
2	Porthmadog	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
3	Bangor 1876 FC	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
4	Bala Town	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
5	Newtown	3	2	1	0	9	1	7
6	Mold Alexandra	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
7	Guilsfield	4	1	3	0	7	6	6
8	Rhyl	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
9	Ruthin Town FC	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
10	Caersws	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
11	Denbigh Town	4	1	0	3	8	9	3
12	Holyhead Hotspur	4	1	0	3	5	7	3
13	CPD Llanuwchllyn	3	1	0	2	3	11	3
14	Buckley Town	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
15	Penrhyncoch	3	0	0	3	1	10	0
16	Gresford Ath	4	0	0	4	0	12	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ruthin Town FC	Mold Alexandra
Guilsfield	2-2 D	2-3 L
Holyhead Hotspur	1-2 L	1-0 W
Newtown	2-3 L	2-1 W
Buckley Town	1-0 W	1-0 W
Gresford Ath	2-1 W	4-1 W
Flint Mountain FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ruthin Town FC

LLWWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
14/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
07/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
18/04	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-1	2-3	2	1	L
03/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	1-1	2-5	6	0	L
27/03	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
20/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
13/03	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
07/03	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Mold Alexandra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
01/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
18/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/04	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/04	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
28/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
21/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
13/03	Airbus UK Wales Championship North	0-3	0-8	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ruthin Town FC vs Mold Alexandra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mold Alexandra win (39%). Probabilities: Ruthin Town FC 36%, draw 25%, Mold Alexandra 39%.

How many goals are expected in Ruthin Town FC vs Mold Alexandra?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Ruthin Town FC 1.5 · Mold Alexandra 1.56), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ruthin Town FC vs Mold Alexandra?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.