Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: Rio Ave vs Sporting

Team pages: Rio Ave · Sporting

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Rio Ave1.26

Sporting1.96

1X2

23% 24% 53%

Rio Ave Draw Sporting

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Rio Ave 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLDLLW

Sporting 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Rio Ave 0–6 Sporting (6 last)

Rio Ave1-4Sporting
Sporting4-0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-2Sporting
Sporting2-0Rio Ave
Rio Ave0-3Sporting
Sporting3-1Rio Ave

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1468 vs 1628).
H2H favours Sporting: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rio Ave	Sporting
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.03

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	8.68 → 8.23▼	Pinn 8.23
X	6.16 → 5.88▼	Pinn 5.88
2	1.26 → 1.30▲	Pinn 1.30

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:28 +4’	8.68	6.16	1.26
23:43 +1’	8.45▼	6.07▼	1.29▲
04:38	8.23▼	5.88▼	1.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Ave 0–0–6 Sporting

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-4 HT 1-2	Sporting
28/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	4-0 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
22/04/25 Portugal Cup	Rio Ave	1-2 HT 0-1	Sporting
03/04/25 Portugal Cup	Sporting	2-0 HT 2-0	Rio Ave
18/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	0-3 HT 0-2	Sporting
09/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	3-1 HT 2-0	Rio Ave

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting	3	2	1	0	8	5	7
2	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
3	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
4	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
6	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
10	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
12	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
13	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Alverca	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rio Ave	Sporting
Gil Vicente	0-1 L	3-0 W
Guimaraes	0-2 L	3-2 W
AVS	2-2 D	1-1 D
Alverca	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rio Ave

LWDLDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
25/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
17/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
04/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	8	3	L

Sporting

WLDDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
14/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-2	5	8	W
08/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
11/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	4-1	6	7	W
04/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	5-1	1	3	W
29/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
26/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
11/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	13	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rio Ave vs Sporting?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting win (53%). Probabilities: Rio Ave 23%, draw 24%, Sporting 53%.

How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Sporting?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Rio Ave 1.26 · Sporting 1.96), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Sporting?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.