Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Mattersburger Sportverein 2020

Team pages: FC Marchfeld Donauauen · Mattersburger Sportverein 2020

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

FC Marchfeld Donauauen2.22

Mattersburger Sportverein 20200.92

1X2

67% 19% 14%

FC Marchfeld Donauauen Draw Mattersburger Sportverein 2020

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1574 · Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 1488

	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Draw	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020
Our model	66%	21%	14%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Marchfeld Donauauen (rating 1574 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +11’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	10	7	1	2	26	10	22
2	Oberwart	10	7	0	3	21	13	21
3	Wiener Sportclub	10	6	1	3	24	11	19
4	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	10	5	3	2	17	17	18
5	SC Wiener Viktoria	10	5	2	3	15	9	17
6	SR Fach-Donaufeld	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
7	FCM Traiskirchen	10	5	2	3	23	20	17
8	Parndorf	10	4	2	4	15	14	14
9	Kremser SC	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
10	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	10	4	1	5	12	13	13
11	SV Horn	10	3	2	5	14	15	11
12	SV Donau	10	2	5	3	15	18	11
13	SV Leobendorf	10	3	2	5	11	15	11
14	SV Gloggnitz	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
15	Favoritner AC	10	3	1	6	7	13	10
16	SV Wienerberg	10	0	0	10	6	36	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020
SV Gloggnitz	3-2 W	0-2 L
Parndorf	4-1 W	1-0 W
Kremser SC	3-1 W	0-3 L
SV Donau	4-1 W	2-2 D
SV Leobendorf	0-1 L	1-2 L
SV Wienerberg	5-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Marchfeld Donauauen (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Marchfeld Donauauen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Favoritner AC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
25/09	Oberwart Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/09	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	SV Horn Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	SV Gloggnitz Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
28/08	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/08	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
15/08	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	7	6	W
07/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
01/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	4-0	5-0	2	3	W

Mattersburger Sportverein 2020

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
25/09	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-3	0-3	2	5	L
18/09	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	2-2	4	10	D
12/09	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
04/09	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
29/08	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
22/08	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	2-0	8	7	W
15/08	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/08	Wiener Sportclub Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
01/08	SV Gloggnitz Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	0-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Mattersburger Sportverein 2020?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Marchfeld Donauauen win (67%). Probabilities: FC Marchfeld Donauauen 67%, draw 19%, Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 14%.

How many goals are expected in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Mattersburger Sportverein 2020?

The model expects 3.14 goals (FC Marchfeld Donauauen 2.22 · Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 0.92), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Mattersburger Sportverein 2020?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.