Football · Wales Premier League · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Haverfordwest County vs Cardiff MU

Team pages: Haverfordwest County · Cardiff MU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Haverfordwest County1.33

Cardiff MU1.09

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Haverfordwest County Draw Cardiff MU

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Haverfordwest County 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLLWW

Cardiff MU 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County 2–3–1 Cardiff MU (6 last)

Cardiff MU1-0Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County1-0Cardiff MU
Cardiff MU0-2Haverfordwest County
Cardiff MU0-0Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County2-2Cardiff MU
Cardiff MU1-1Haverfordwest County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haverfordwest County 1543 · Cardiff MU 1491

	Haverfordwest County	Draw	Cardiff MU
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haverfordwest County (rating 1543 vs 1491).
H2H favours Haverfordwest County: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haverfordwest County	Cardiff MU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	2.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:05 +2’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Haverfordwest County 2–3–1 Cardiff MU

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 Wales Premier League	Cardiff MU	1-0 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County
13/03/26 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	1-0 HT 0-0	Cardiff MU
23/01/26 Wales Premier League	Cardiff MU	0-2 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County
30/12/25 Wales Premier League	Cardiff MU	0-0 HT 0-0	Haverfordwest County
22/08/25 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	2-2 HT 2-0	Cardiff MU
11/04/25 Wales Premier League	Cardiff MU	1-1 HT 1-0	Haverfordwest County

Standings · Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	15	13	2	0	53	6	41
2	Connah's Quay	15	11	2	2	32	9	35
3	Penybont	14	10	3	1	30	11	33
4	Caernarfon Town	15	9	2	4	42	19	29
5	Colwyn Bay	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
6	Barry Town	15	9	1	5	32	26	28
7	Airbus UK	15	9	0	6	31	22	27
8	Cardiff MU	15	6	4	5	26	23	22
9	Cambrian United	15	5	3	7	23	38	18
10	Llandudno	15	5	1	9	22	28	16
11	Haverfordwest County	15	5	1	9	12	20	16
12	Briton Ferry	15	4	3	8	16	25	15
13	Flint Town Utd	15	4	2	9	19	25	14
14	Ammanford AFC	15	2	3	10	10	42	9
15	Trefelin BGC	15	1	3	11	8	36	6
16	Holywell Town	14	0	2	12	14	49	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haverfordwest County	Cardiff MU
Ammanford AFC	1-0 W	5-0 W
Caernarfon Town	1-2 L	2-2 D
Flint Town Utd	0-1 L	1-1 D
Colwyn Bay	0-1 L	2-2 D
Connah's Quay	1-1 D	0-1 L
Trefelin BGC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cardiff MU (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haverfordwest County

WDWWLLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
24/10	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
09/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
03/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	11	9	L
29/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
18/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
04/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W

Cardiff MU

WDDLDWWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-3	0-5	1	0	L
23/10	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	0	3	D
09/10	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	8	0	L
03/10	Llandudno Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
29/09	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
18/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	10	1	L
11/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
04/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
31/08	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	2-0	5-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haverfordwest County vs Cardiff MU?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Haverfordwest County win (42%). Probabilities: Haverfordwest County 42%, draw 28%, Cardiff MU 30%.

How many goals are expected in Haverfordwest County vs Cardiff MU?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Haverfordwest County 1.33 · Cardiff MU 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Haverfordwest County vs Cardiff MU?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.