Football · Wales Premier League · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Trefelin BGC vs Colwyn Bay

Team pages: Trefelin BGC · Colwyn Bay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Trefelin BGC0.66

Colwyn Bay2.22

1X2

9% 18% 73%

Trefelin BGC Draw Colwyn Bay

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Trefelin BGC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Colwyn Bay 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Trefelin BGC 0–1 Colwyn Bay (1 last)

Colwyn Bay2-0Trefelin BGC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trefelin BGC 1433 · Colwyn Bay 1570

	Trefelin BGC	Draw	Colwyn Bay
Our model	9%	19%	72%
Market	10%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colwyn Bay (rating 1433 vs 1570).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trefelin BGC	Colwyn Bay
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.50

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.93

2 (-1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:53 +14’	9.00	5.50	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Trefelin BGC 0–0–1 Colwyn Bay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Wales Premier League	Colwyn Bay	2-0 HT 2-0	Trefelin BGC

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	15	13	2	0	53	6	41
2	Connah's Quay	15	11	2	2	32	9	35
3	Penybont	14	10	3	1	30	11	33
4	Caernarfon Town	15	9	2	4	42	19	29
5	Colwyn Bay	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
6	Barry Town	15	9	1	5	32	26	28
7	Airbus UK	15	9	0	6	31	22	27
8	Cardiff MU	15	6	4	5	26	23	22
9	Cambrian United	15	5	3	7	23	38	18
10	Llandudno	15	5	1	9	22	28	16
11	Haverfordwest County	15	5	1	9	12	20	16
12	Briton Ferry	15	4	3	8	16	25	15
13	Flint Town Utd	15	4	2	9	19	25	14
14	Ammanford AFC	15	2	3	10	10	42	9
15	Trefelin BGC	15	1	3	11	8	36	6
16	Holywell Town	14	0	2	12	14	49	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trefelin BGC	Colwyn Bay
Barry Town	0-3 L	5-2 W
Flint Town Utd	0-2 L	1-0 W
Cardiff MU	3-1 W	2-2 D
Briton Ferry	1-1 D	0-1 L
Cambrian United	0-4 L	2-0 W
Penybont	0-1 L	0-1 L
Holywell Town	1-1 D	5-0 W
Haverfordwest County	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Colwyn Bay (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trefelin BGC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-3	0-3	3	2	L
23/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
09/10	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	1	0	W
03/10	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
26/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
18/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
15/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
11/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
04/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
31/08	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	1	L

Colwyn Bay

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
23/10	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
10/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
03/10	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
26/09	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
18/09	Barry Town Wales Premier League	1-2	5-2	6	1	W
15/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	5-0	5-0	5	0	W
12/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
05/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
31/08	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trefelin BGC vs Colwyn Bay?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Colwyn Bay win (73%). Probabilities: Trefelin BGC 9%, draw 18%, Colwyn Bay 73%.

How many goals are expected in Trefelin BGC vs Colwyn Bay?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Trefelin BGC 0.66 · Colwyn Bay 2.22), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Trefelin BGC vs Colwyn Bay?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.