Football · Wales Premier League · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Holywell Town vs Airbus UK

Team pages: Holywell Town · Airbus UK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

Holywell Town1.22

Airbus UK2.84

1X2

13% 17% 70%

Holywell Town Draw Airbus UK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Holywell Town 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLDLLL

Airbus UK 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Holywell Town 1–1–4 Airbus UK (6 last)

Airbus UK6-2Holywell Town
Holywell Town0-3Airbus UK
Airbus UK0-0Holywell Town
Holywell Town2-1Airbus UK
Airbus UK8-3Holywell Town
Holywell Town1-2Airbus UK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holywell Town 1386 · Airbus UK 1554

	Holywell Town	Draw	Airbus UK
Our model	13%	17%	70%
Market	13%	17%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Airbus UK (rating 1386 vs 1554).
H2H favours Airbus UK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holywell Town	Airbus UK
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 3.4	2.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.7	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.25

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:03 +2’	7.00	5.25	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Holywell Town 1–1–4 Airbus UK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Wales Premier League	Airbus UK	6-2 HT 3-1	Holywell Town
03/04/26 Wales Championship North	Holywell Town	0-3 HT 0-1	Airbus UK
03/10/25 Wales Championship North	Airbus UK	0-0 HT 0-0	Holywell Town
25/01/25 Wales Championship North	Holywell Town	2-1 HT 0-1	Airbus UK
25/10/24 Wales Championship North	Airbus UK	8-3 HT 4-1	Holywell Town
16/12/23 Wales Championship North	Holywell Town	1-2 HT 1-2	Airbus UK

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	15	13	2	0	53	6	41
2	Connah's Quay	15	11	2	2	32	9	35
3	Penybont	14	10	3	1	30	11	33
4	Caernarfon Town	15	9	2	4	42	19	29
5	Colwyn Bay	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
6	Barry Town	15	9	1	5	32	26	28
7	Airbus UK	15	9	0	6	31	22	27
8	Cardiff MU	15	6	4	5	26	23	22
9	Cambrian United	15	5	3	7	23	38	18
10	Llandudno	15	5	1	9	22	28	16
11	Haverfordwest County	15	5	1	9	12	20	16
12	Briton Ferry	15	4	3	8	16	25	15
13	Flint Town Utd	15	4	2	9	19	25	14
14	Ammanford AFC	15	2	3	10	10	42	9
15	Trefelin BGC	15	1	3	11	8	36	6
16	Holywell Town	14	0	2	12	14	49	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holywell Town	Airbus UK
Flint Town Utd	0-5 L	4-1 W
T.N.S.	1-6 L	0-2 L
Briton Ferry	1-1 D	2-0 W
Cambrian United	1-2 L	3-2 W
Trefelin BGC	1-1 D	3-0 W
Caernarfon Town	3-5 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Airbus UK (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holywell Town

LLDLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	0-2	0-5	4	4	L
09/10	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	1-1	1-6	6	1	L
03/10	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
18/09	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-5	0-5	1	0	L
11/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-3	2-6	0	0	L
28/08	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-3	3-5	–	–	L

Airbus UK

WWLLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
23/10	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
09/10	Llandudno Wales Premier League	3-1	4-1	2	6	W
03/10	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
26/09	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	3-0	4-1	6	4	W
15/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-3	0	4	L
11/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
04/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
31/08	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	3-1	6-2	0	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holywell Town vs Airbus UK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Airbus UK win (70%). Probabilities: Holywell Town 13%, draw 17%, Airbus UK 70%.

How many goals are expected in Holywell Town vs Airbus UK?

The model expects 4.06 goals (Holywell Town 1.22 · Airbus UK 2.84), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Holywell Town vs Airbus UK?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.