Football · Wales Premier League · 06/11, 21:00
Prediction: Connah's Quay vs Flint Town Utd
Team pages: Connah's Quay · Flint Town Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Connah's Quay2.11
Flint Town Utd0.85
1X2
Connah's Quay
Draw
Flint Town Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Connah's Quay
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Flint Town Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Connah's Quay
5–1
Flint Town Utd
(6 last)
- Flint Town Utd1-2Connah's Quay
- Flint Town Utd0-2Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay3-2Flint Town Utd
- Connah's Quay4-0Flint Town Utd
- Flint Town Utd2-1Connah's Quay
- Connah's Quay7-2Flint Town Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Connah's Quay 1606 · Flint Town Utd 1474
| Connah's Quay | Draw | Flint Town Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 21% | 13% |
| Market | 67% | 18% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Connah's Quay (rating 1606 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Connah's Quay: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Connah's Quay | Flint Town Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.8 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Connah's Quay 5–0–1 Flint Town Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Connah's Quay |
| 26/12/25 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Connah's Quay |
| 25/08/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Flint Town Utd |
| 11/03/25 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Flint Town Utd |
| 25/01/25 Wales Premier League | Flint Town Utd | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Connah's Quay |
| 26/12/24 Wales Premier League | Connah's Quay | 7-2 HT 6-1 | Flint Town Utd |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 41 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 9 | 35 |
| 3 | Penybont | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 33 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 19 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 28 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 22 | 27 |
| 8 | Cardiff MU | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 38 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 20 | 16 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 15 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 14 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 36 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 49 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Connah's Quay | Flint Town Utd |
|---|---|---|
| T.N.S. | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Cardiff MU | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Airbus UK | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Colwyn Bay | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Haverfordwest County | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Connah's Quay (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Connah's Quay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 24/10 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/10 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Flint Town Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/10 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/10 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 26/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Connah's Quay vs Flint Town Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Connah's Quay win (66%). Probabilities: Connah's Quay 66%, draw 19%, Flint Town Utd 14%.
How many goals are expected in Connah's Quay vs Flint Town Utd?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Connah's Quay 2.11 · Flint Town Utd 0.85), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Connah's Quay vs Flint Town Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.