Football · Wales Premier League · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Penybont vs Caernarfon Town

Team pages: Penybont · Caernarfon Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Penybont1.56

Caernarfon Town1.6

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Penybont Draw Caernarfon Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Penybont 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWLWW

Caernarfon Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Penybont 3–1–2 Caernarfon Town (6 last)

Caernarfon Town1-2Penybont
Caernarfon Town2-0Penybont
Penybont0-0Caernarfon Town
Penybont0-2Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town1-2Penybont
Penybont3-1Caernarfon Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penybont 1594 · Caernarfon Town 1554

	Penybont	Draw	Caernarfon Town
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penybont (rating 1594 vs 1554).
H2H favours Penybont: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penybont	Caernarfon Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.9	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	3.6 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +1’	2.50	3.40	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penybont 3–1–2 Caernarfon Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	1-2 HT 1-2	Penybont
18/04/26 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	2-0 HT 2-0	Penybont
24/01/26 Wales Premier League	Penybont	0-0 HT 0-0	Caernarfon Town
25/10/25 Wales Premier League	Penybont	0-2 HT 0-0	Caernarfon Town
20/09/25 Wales Premier League	Caernarfon Town	1-2 HT 0-0	Penybont
13/04/25 Wales Premier League	Penybont	3-1 HT 1-1	Caernarfon Town

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	15	13	2	0	53	6	41
2	Connah's Quay	15	11	2	2	32	9	35
3	Penybont	14	10	3	1	30	11	33
4	Caernarfon Town	15	9	2	4	42	19	29
5	Colwyn Bay	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
6	Barry Town	15	9	1	5	32	26	28
7	Airbus UK	15	9	0	6	31	22	27
8	Cardiff MU	15	6	4	5	26	23	22
9	Cambrian United	15	5	3	7	23	38	18
10	Llandudno	15	5	1	9	22	28	16
11	Haverfordwest County	15	5	1	9	12	20	16
12	Briton Ferry	15	4	3	8	16	25	15
13	Flint Town Utd	15	4	2	9	19	25	14
14	Ammanford AFC	15	2	3	10	10	42	9
15	Trefelin BGC	15	1	3	11	8	36	6
16	Holywell Town	14	0	2	12	14	49	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penybont	Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MU	5-0 W	2-2 D
Barry Town	3-1 W	0-1 L
Airbus UK	2-1 W	2-3 L
Ammanford AFC	5-1 W	5-0 W
Briton Ferry	3-2 W	3-1 W
Cambrian United	2-2 D	9-1 W
Flint Town Utd	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penybont

DDWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	3-0	5-0	2	0	W
09/10	Barry Town Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	9	1	W
03/10	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
26/09	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	4-0	5-1	3	1	W
15/09	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	3-1	3-2	1	5	W
11/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
05/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/08	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
28/08	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	7	7	D

Caernarfon Town

LWWDWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	1-1	2-3	9	5	L
23/10	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
09/10	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
03/10	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
26/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	11	7	D
18/09	Cambrian United Wales Premier League	3-1	9-1	9	6	W
15/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
11/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
04/09	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	13	4	W
31/08	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	1-2	2-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caernarfon Town win (38%). Probabilities: Penybont 36%, draw 26%, Caernarfon Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Penybont 1.56 · Caernarfon Town 1.6), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.