Football · Wales Premier League · 01/08, 15:30

Prediction: Haverfordwest County vs Airbus UK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Haverfordwest County1.83

Airbus UK0.97

1X2

58% 23% 20%

Haverfordwest County Draw Airbus UK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Haverfordwest County 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Airbus UK 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County 5–1 Airbus UK (6 last)

Airbus UK1-4Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County4-0Airbus UK
Airbus UK1-2Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County3-0Airbus UK
Airbus UK1-2Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County0-1Airbus UK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haverfordwest County 1540 · Airbus UK 1632

	Haverfordwest County	Draw	Airbus UK
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	59%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Airbus UK (rating 1540 vs 1632).
H2H favours Haverfordwest County: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haverfordwest County	Airbus UK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	3.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +10’	1.53	4.33	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Haverfordwest County 5–0–1 Airbus UK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/23 Wales Premier League	Airbus UK	1-4 HT 1-1	Haverfordwest County
18/03/23 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	4-0 HT 1-0	Airbus UK
19/11/22 Wales Premier League	Airbus UK	1-2 HT 1-0	Haverfordwest County
27/08/22 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	3-0 HT 1-0	Airbus UK
25/09/21 Wales Cup	Airbus UK	1-2 HT 1-1	Haverfordwest County
19/12/15 Wales Premier League	Haverfordwest County	0-1 HT 0-0	Airbus UK

Standings · Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Airbus UK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ammanford AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barry Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Briton Ferry	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caernarfon Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambrian United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cardiff MU	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Colwyn Bay	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Connah's Quay	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Flint Town Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Haverfordwest County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holywell Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llandudno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Penybont	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	T.N.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trefelin BGC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Haverfordwest County

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Llanelli Town UK Friendlies	6-0	8-0	5	1	W
18/07	Gloucester UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
04/07	Hamilton UK Friendlies	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
02/05	Penybont Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
26/04	Barry Town Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
18/04	Llanelli Town Wales Premier League	3-0	6-0	8	3	W
03/04	Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
28/03	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
21/03	Bala Town Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
13/03	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Airbus UK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Denbigh Town UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
30/06	Mold Alexandra UK Friendlies	2-2	4-3	6	0	W
18/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	1-0	3-1	1	5	W
03/04	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
28/03	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/03	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
13/03	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	3-0	8-0	4	1	W
10/03	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	2-0	5-0	8	0	W
07/03	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
28/02	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haverfordwest County vs Airbus UK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Haverfordwest County win (58%). Probabilities: Haverfordwest County 58%, draw 23%, Airbus UK 20%.

How many goals are expected in Haverfordwest County vs Airbus UK?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Haverfordwest County 1.83 · Airbus UK 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Haverfordwest County vs Airbus UK?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.