Football · Wales Premier League · 30/10, 20:45
Prediction: Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town
Team pages: Airbus UK · Caernarfon Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Airbus UK1.64
Caernarfon Town2.31
1X2
Airbus UK
Draw
Caernarfon Town
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Airbus UK
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Caernarfon Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Airbus UK
0–6
Caernarfon Town
(6 last)
- Caernarfon Town4-0Airbus UK
- Airbus UK0-2Caernarfon Town
- Airbus UK0-3Caernarfon Town
- Caernarfon Town3-1Airbus UK
- Caernarfon Town5-0Airbus UK
- Airbus UK2-3Caernarfon Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Airbus UK 1524 · Caernarfon Town 1570
| Airbus UK | Draw | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 23% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caernarfon Town (rating 1524 vs 1570).
- H2H favours Caernarfon Town: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Airbus UK | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.7 | 3.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 70/0/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 4 / 7.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Airbus UK 0–0–6 Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/23 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Airbus UK |
| 17/02/23 Wales Premier League | Airbus UK | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Caernarfon Town |
| 10/01/23 Wales Premier League | Airbus UK | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Caernarfon Town |
| 02/09/22 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Airbus UK |
| 13/12/19 Wales Premier League | Caernarfon Town | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Airbus UK |
| 30/08/19 Wales Premier League | Airbus UK | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Caernarfon Town |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 9 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MU | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Airbus UK | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Cambrian United | 3-2 W | 9-1 W |
| Llandudno | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Flint Town Utd | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| T.N.S. | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Briton Ferry | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Holywell Town | 6-2 W | 5-3 W |
| Barry Town | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Caernarfon Town (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Airbus UK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/10 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/09 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 6-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 28/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
Caernarfon Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 09/10 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 9-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Holywell Town Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caernarfon Town win (52%). Probabilities: Airbus UK 26%, draw 22%, Caernarfon Town 52%.
How many goals are expected in Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Airbus UK 1.64 · Caernarfon Town 2.31), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.