Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 29/08, 15:30

Prediction: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Team pages: Union Berlin · Eintracht Frankfurt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Union Berlin2

Eintracht Frankfurt1.94

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Union Berlin Draw Eintracht Frankfurt

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Union Berlin 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLDWW

Eintracht Frankfurt 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLDLLD

Head-to-head

Union Berlin 2–3–1 Eintracht Frankfurt (6 last)

Union Berlin1-1Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt3-4Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt1-2Union Berlin
Union Berlin1-1Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt0-0Union Berlin
Union Berlin0-3Eintracht Frankfurt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Berlin 1493 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1556

	Union Berlin	Draw	Eintracht Frankfurt
Our model	40%	22%	38%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eintracht Frankfurt (rating 1493 vs 1556).
H2H favours Union Berlin: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Berlin	Eintracht Frankfurt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.48
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.74 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +13’	2.45	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:44	2.48	3.56	2.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Berlin 2–3–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	1-1 HT 0-0	Eintracht Frankfurt
21/09/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Eintracht Frankfurt	3-4 HT 1-2	Union Berlin
09/03/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Eintracht Frankfurt	1-2 HT 1-0	Union Berlin
27/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	1-1 HT 0-1	Eintracht Frankfurt
30/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Eintracht Frankfurt	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Berlin
04/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	0-3 HT 0-2	Eintracht Frankfurt

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cologne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Borussia M'gladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Paderborn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Schalke	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TSG Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Berlin	Eintracht Frankfurt
Augsburg	4-0 W	1-1 D
Mainz	3-1 W	1-2 L
Cologne	2-2 D	2-2 D
RB Leipzig	1-3 L	1-3 L
Wolfsburg	1-2 L	2-1 W
Heidenheim	1-3 L	1-0 W
St Pauli	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Berlin

LWLDLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
10/05	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/05	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
24/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
18/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
11/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
05/04	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
21/03	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
15/03	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
08/03	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-4	1	5	L

Eintracht Frankfurt

DWLDWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	2-2	6	5	D
08/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	2-3	2	3	L
02/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-2	9	7	L
25/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
11/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-2	8	3	D
22/03	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
14/03	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/03	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Berlin win (39%). Probabilities: Union Berlin 39%, draw 25%, Eintracht Frankfurt 36%.

How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Union Berlin 2 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.94), with a 61% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.