Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 29/08, 15:30
Prediction: RB Leipzig vs Borussia M'gladbach
Team pages: RB Leipzig · Borussia M'gladbach
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.26Total
RB Leipzig2.17
Borussia M'gladbach1.09
1X2
RB Leipzig
Draw
Borussia M'gladbach
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
RB Leipzig
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Borussia M'gladbach
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
RB Leipzig
3–2–1
Borussia M'gladbach
(6 last)
- RB Leipzig1-0Borussia M'gladbach
- Borussia M'gladbach0-0RB Leipzig
- Borussia M'gladbach1-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig0-0Borussia M'gladbach
- RB Leipzig2-0Borussia M'gladbach
- Borussia M'gladbach0-1RB Leipzig
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · RB Leipzig 1565 · Borussia M'gladbach 1639
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia M'gladbach (rating 1565 vs 1639).
- H2H favours RB Leipzig: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RB Leipzig | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.8 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RB Leipzig 3–2–1 Borussia M'gladbach
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Borussia M'gladbach |
| 28/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia M'gladbach | 0-0 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 29/03/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia M'gladbach | 1-0 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 09/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Borussia M'gladbach |
| 17/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Borussia M'gladbach |
| 23/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia M'gladbach | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cologne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Borussia M'gladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mainz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paderborn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Schalke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Borussia M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| St Pauli | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 5-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Augsburg | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: RB Leipzig (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/03 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Borussia M'gladbach
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 09/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 21/03 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 13/03 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/03 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RB Leipzig vs Borussia M'gladbach?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RB Leipzig win (61%). Probabilities: RB Leipzig 61%, draw 22%, Borussia M'gladbach 17%.
How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Borussia M'gladbach?
The model expects 3.26 goals (RB Leipzig 2.17 · Borussia M'gladbach 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia M'gladbach?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.