Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 30/08, 15:30

Prediction: SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

Team pages: SC Freiburg · Werder Bremen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

SC Freiburg1.66

Werder Bremen1.25

1X2

45% 28% 27%

SC Freiburg Draw Werder Bremen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Freiburg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWLDLW

Werder Bremen 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDLLL

Head-to-head

SC Freiburg 5–1 Werder Bremen (6 last)

SC Freiburg1-0Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen0-3SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg5-0Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen0-1SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen3-1SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg1-0Werder Bremen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Freiburg 1570 · Werder Bremen 1534

	SC Freiburg	Draw	Werder Bremen
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SC Freiburg: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Freiburg	Werder Bremen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.65 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +1’	2.10	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +1’	2.02	3.65	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Freiburg 5–0–1 Werder Bremen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	1-0 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen
20/09/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	0-3 HT 0-1	SC Freiburg
21/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	5-0 HT 2-0	Werder Bremen
05/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Freiburg
27/01/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	3-1 HT 1-1	SC Freiburg
26/08/23 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	1-0 HT 0-0	Werder Bremen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cologne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Borussia M'gladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Paderborn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Schalke	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TSG Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Freiburg	Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig	4-1 W	1-2 L
Hamburg	2-3 L	3-1 W
Wolfsburg	1-1 D	1-0 W
Borussia Dortmund	0-4 L	0-2 L
Mainz	1-0 W	0-2 L
Union Berlin	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Werder Bremen (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Freiburg

DLWLWWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	4-1	1	1	W
10/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
03/05	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	0-4	0	1	L
19/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
12/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/04	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/03	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
15/03	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
07/03	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	3-3	5	5	D

Werder Bremen

WLWLLWDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
09/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
26/04	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
18/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
12/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
04/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
21/03	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
15/03	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
08/03	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	4-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Freiburg win (45%). Probabilities: SC Freiburg 45%, draw 28%, Werder Bremen 27%.

How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

The model expects 2.91 goals (SC Freiburg 1.66 · Werder Bremen 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.