Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 29/08, 15:30

Prediction: Cologne vs TSG Hoffenheim

Team pages: TSG Hoffenheim

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Cologne1.74

TSG Hoffenheim1.92

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Cologne Draw TSG Hoffenheim

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cologne 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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TSG Hoffenheim 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWWDWL

Head-to-head

Cologne 2–3–1 TSG Hoffenheim (6 last)

Cologne2-2TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim0-1Cologne
TSG Hoffenheim1-1Cologne
Cologne1-3TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim1-3Cologne
Cologne1-1TSG Hoffenheim

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cologne 1533 · TSG Hoffenheim 1567

	Cologne	Draw	TSG Hoffenheim
Our model	35%	23%	42%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cologne: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cologne	TSG Hoffenheim
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.98
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +3’	2.88	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +4’	2.98	3.67	2.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cologne 2–3–1 TSG Hoffenheim

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	2-2 HT 1-1	TSG Hoffenheim
03/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	0-1 HT 0-1	Cologne
11/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	1-1 HT 0-0	Cologne
16/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	1-3 HT 0-2	TSG Hoffenheim
22/04/23 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	1-3 HT 0-2	Cologne
30/10/22 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	1-1 HT 1-1	TSG Hoffenheim

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cologne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Borussia M'gladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Paderborn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Schalke	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TSG Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cologne	TSG Hoffenheim
Heidenheim	1-3 L	4-2 W
Werder Bremen	3-1 W	1-0 W
Borussia M'gladbach	3-3 D	0-4 L
Hamburg	1-1 D	2-1 W
Borussia Dortmund	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: TSG Hoffenheim (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cologne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	1-3	1-5	5	2	L
10/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
25/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/04	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/04	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	8	6	W
05/04	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-2	0	3	D
21/03	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	3-3	5	10	D
14/03	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
07/03	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	9	3	L

TSG Hoffenheim

WDLLDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	10	L
09/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-3	4	5	D
25/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
20/03	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-4	0-5	3	2	L
14/03	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	16	3	D
07/03	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-2	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cologne vs TSG Hoffenheim?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TSG Hoffenheim win (41%). Probabilities: Cologne 34%, draw 25%, TSG Hoffenheim 41%.

How many goals are expected in Cologne vs TSG Hoffenheim?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Cologne 1.74 · TSG Hoffenheim 1.92), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cologne vs TSG Hoffenheim?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.