Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 29/08, 18:30
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg
Team pages: Borussia Dortmund
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Borussia Dortmund2.25
Hamburg0.78
1X2
Borussia Dortmund
Draw
Hamburg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Borussia Dortmund
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Hamburg
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Borussia Dortmund
5–1–0
Hamburg
(6 last)
- Borussia Dortmund3-2Hamburg
- Hamburg1-1Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund2-0Hamburg
- Hamburg0-3Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund3-0Hamburg
- Hamburg2-5Borussia Dortmund
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Borussia Dortmund 1555 · Hamburg 1494
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 11% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia Dortmund (rating 1555 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Borussia Dortmund: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 1.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Borussia Dortmund 5–1–0 Hamburg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Hamburg |
| 08/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 10/02/18 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Hamburg |
| 20/09/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 04/04/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Hamburg |
| 05/11/16 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 2-5 HT 0-3 | Borussia Dortmund |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cologne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Borussia M'gladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mainz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paderborn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Schalke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| SC Freiburg | 4-0 W | 3-2 W |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Augsburg | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Cologne | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Borussia Dortmund (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Borussia Dortmund
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/03 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 14/03 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 07/03 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 21/03 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 07/03 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Borussia Dortmund win (70%). Probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 70%, draw 18%, Hamburg 11%.
How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Borussia Dortmund 2.25 · Hamburg 0.78), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.